聚乙烯风险管理日报-20250715

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Today, affected by macro - factors, chemical products generally declined. PE has a contradiction between weak reality and strong expectation, with its spot performance being weak recently but fundamentals expected to be better. If the current demand growth rate is maintained, the PE supply - demand structure is expected to be in a tight - balance state. The month - spread has changed from back to contango, and pressure on L09 is expected to be relieved when the PE spot shows positive feedback [3] - There are both positive and negative factors for PE. Positive factors include some full - density device conversions and potential import reduction from Iran due to conflicts. Negative factors are the planned commissioning of multiple HDPE devices in the middle of the year and weak spot prices [4][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Prediction and Volatility - The monthly price range prediction for polyethylene is 7100 - 7400, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 12.32% and a historical percentile of 21.7% over 3 years [2] 3.2 Hedging Strategies 3.2.1 Inventory Management - When inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops, for inventory management, it is recommended to short L2509 plastic futures with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 7250 - 7300 to prevent inventory depreciation. Also, sell L2509C7300 call options with a 50% hedging ratio at 50 - 100 to collect premiums and lock in the spot selling price if the price rises [2] 3.2.2 Procurement Management - When procurement inventory is low and aiming to lock in costs, buy L2509 plastic futures with a 50% hedging ratio at 7100 - 7150 to prevent price increases. Sell L2509P7100 put options with a 75% hedging ratio at 40 - 80 to collect premiums and lock in the spot purchase price if the price drops [2] 3.3 Market Data Table 3.3.1 Futures Prices and Spreads - On July 15, 2025, the plastic main basis was 14 yuan/ton, with a daily change of 58 yuan/ton and a weekly change of 14 yuan/ton. The L01, L05, and L09 contracts were 7239, 7214, and 7221 yuan/ton respectively, with daily changes of - 49, - 44, and - 63 yuan/ton and weekly changes of 14, 14, and - 24 yuan/ton [6][8] 3.3.2 Spot Prices and Regional Spreads - On July 15, 2025, spot prices in North China, East China, and South China were 7150, 7290, and 7270 yuan/ton respectively. The East - North and East - South regional spreads were 140 and 20 yuan/ton with daily changes of 30 and 30 yuan/ton and weekly changes of - 10 and - 30 yuan/ton [8] 3.3.3 Non - standard and Standard Product Spreads - On July 15, 2025, the spreads between HDPE film and LLDPE film, HDPE hollow and LLDPE film, etc. showed various changes compared to previous days and weeks [8] 3.3.4 Upstream Prices and Processing Profits - On July 15, 2025, the Brent crude oil price was 69 dollars/barrel, the US ethane price was 0.245 dollars/gallon, and there were different profit situations for oil - based, coal - based, and other PE production methods [8]