CGWS(SZ:002939) Great Wall Securities·2025-07-16 02:22Group 1: Economic Indicators - The domestic CPI has remained around 0 since April 2023, with June CPI showing a year-on-year increase of 0.1% after four consecutive months of decline [1] - The June PPI decreased by 3.6% year-on-year, marking the 33rd consecutive month in negative territory, with production materials and living materials both showing significant declines [2][3] - The decline in prices is attributed to factors such as the deep adjustment in the real estate market, pessimistic income expectations, and overcapacity in emerging industries like new energy and photovoltaics [3] Group 2: Policy Recommendations - To address the low price environment, it is essential to implement more proactive macroeconomic policies, including effective fiscal and monetary measures [3] - The report suggests expanding government-led investment demand, focusing on new infrastructure and urban renewal, and utilizing special government bonds to stimulate the economy [3][5] - There is a need to enhance consumer demand by increasing residents' income, particularly for low- and middle-income groups, and stabilizing property and stock market incomes [5] Group 3: Market Outlook - The report indicates that the upcoming policy window in July is expected to bring more favorable policies, which may boost market risk appetite [6][7] - The market is currently lacking a clear mainline, but sectors such as technology growth (semiconductors, AI, consumer electronics) and new consumption industries are highlighted as having upward potential [8] - The focus on long-term investments from insurance funds is expected to increase, as new policies are set to encourage stable and value-oriented investments [7]