Nanhua Futures(SH:603093) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-07-16 02:32Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The medium - to long - term trend of precious metals may be bullish, but short - term fluctuations will intensify. It is recommended to control positions. For London gold, pay attention to the support at the 3300 mark, and for London silver, the support is around 37.3. The strategy of buying on dips is still maintained [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Tuesday, the precious metals market adjusted. The sharp rise of the US dollar index and the 10Y US Treasury yield was a negative factor. The surrounding US stocks and Bitcoin declined, crude oil fluctuated, and the South China Non - ferrous Metals fluctuated. COMEX gold 2508 contract closed at $3330.5 per ounce, down 0.85%; US silver 2509 contract closed at $37.985 per ounce, down 1.95%. SHFE gold 2510 main contract was 780.4 yuan per gram, up 1.06%; SHFE silver 2510 contract was 9225 yuan per kilogram, up 0.52% [1] Interest Rate Cut Expectations and Fund Holdings - The expectation of an interest rate cut in September has slightly cooled. According to CME "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 97.4%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 2.6%. In September, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 45.1%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 53.5%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 1.4%. In October, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 22%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 49.2%, the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 28.1%, and the probability of a cumulative 75 - basis - point cut is 0.7%. The daily holdings of SPDR Gold ETF remained at 947.64 tons, and the holdings of iShares Silver ETF decreased by 110.22 tons to 14856.02 tons. SHFE silver inventory decreased by 1 ton to 1223 tons daily, and SGX silver inventory increased by 7.3 tons to 1327.2 tons in the week ending July 4 [2] This Week's Focus - This week, focus on the US CPI data on Tuesday evening. On Thursday at 02:00, the Fed will release the Beige Book of Economic Conditions; at 05:30, FOMC permanent voter and New York Fed President Williams will speak on the US economy and monetary policy. In addition, US President Trump plans to make a "major statement" on the Russian issue this week [3] Precious Metals Spot and Futures Prices - SHFE gold main continuous contract was 780.4 yuan per gram, down 1 yuan, or - 0.13%; SGX gold TD was 776.13 yuan per gram, down 1.33 yuan, or - 0.17%; CME gold main contract was $3330.5 per ounce, down $21.6, or - 0.64%. SHFE silver main continuous contract was 9225 yuan per kilogram, up 18 yuan, or 0.2%; SGX silver TD was 9184 yuan per kilogram, up 12 yuan, or 0.13%; CME silver main contract was $37.985 per ounce, down $0.425, or - 1.11%. SHFE - TD gold was 4.27 yuan per gram, up 0.33 yuan, or 8.38%; SHFE - TD silver was 41 yuan per kilogram, up 6 yuan, or 191.67%. CME gold - silver ratio was 87.6793, up 0.4078, or 0.47% [5] Inventory and Holdings - SHFE gold inventory was 28872 kilograms, up 15 kilograms, or 0.05%; CME gold inventory was 1143.012 tons, unchanged; SHFE gold holdings were 198270 lots, up 7187 lots, or 3.76%; SPDR gold holdings were 947.64 tons, unchanged. SHFE silver inventory was 1222.959 tons, down 1.023 tons, or - 0.08%; CME silver inventory was 15447.1139 tons, up 0.3878 tons, or 0%; SGX silver inventory was 1327.23 tons, up 7.335 tons, or 0.56%; SHFE silver holdings were 450115 lots, up 2020 lots, or 0.45%; SLV silver holdings were 14856.023289 tons, down 110.213 tons, or - 0.74% [11] Stock, Bond, and Commodity Overview - The US dollar index was 98.6303, up 0.5171, or 0.53%; the US dollar against the Chinese yuan was 7.1858, up 0.0139, or 0.19%; the Dow Jones Industrial Average was 44459.65 points, up 88.14 points, or 0.2%; WTI crude oil spot was $66.98 per barrel, down $1.47, or - 2.15%; LmeS copper 03 was $9643.5 per ton, down $19.5, or - 0.2%. The 10Y US Treasury yield was 4.43%, unchanged; the 10Y US real interest rate was 2.09%, up 0.05, or 2.45%; the 10 - 2Y US Treasury yield spread was 0.53%, unchanged [16][17]