JAC(SH:600418) Huachuang Securities·2025-07-16 04:05Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Jianghuai Automobile (600418) with a target price of 59.24 CNY, indicating an expected upside of 48% from the current market price [1][7]. Core Views - The company anticipates a net loss of 680 million CNY for the first half of 2025, compared to a profit of 300 million CNY in the same period last year. The adjusted net loss is expected to be 820 million CNY, down from a profit of 90 million CNY year-on-year [1][7]. - The report highlights the strong performance of the Zun Jie S800 model, which has exceeded expectations with over 8,000 orders since its launch, indicating a positive outlook for future sales [7][8]. - The luxury vehicle segment is projected to enhance Jianghuai's profitability, with expectations of significantly higher net margins compared to competitors like Porsche [7][8]. Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for Jianghuai Automobile are as follows: - 2024: 42.202 billion CNY - 2025: 47.484 billion CNY (12.5% YoY growth) - 2026: 59.993 billion CNY (26.3% YoY growth) - 2027: 71.506 billion CNY (19.2% YoY growth) [3][8] - The forecasted net profit for the company is expected to improve significantly from a loss of 1.784 billion CNY in 2024 to a profit of 3.749 billion CNY by 2027, reflecting a substantial turnaround in profitability [3][8]. - The report estimates that the Zun Jie business will generate revenues of 38 billion CNY in 2025, growing to 222 billion CNY by 2027, contributing to the overall revenue growth of the company [7][8]. Market Performance - Jianghuai's total vehicle sales in Q2 2025 are projected to decline by 8.5% year-on-year, with a total of 91,000 units sold, impacted by international competition and export challenges [7][8]. - The report emphasizes the competitive landscape of the luxury vehicle market, where Jianghuai aims to position itself as a high-ROE and competitive player, benefiting from its unique technology and brand positioning [7][8].