NHPM(SH:601882) Huachuang Securities·2025-07-16 04:11Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 26.18 CNY [1][7]. Core Views - The company is expected to recover its profitability under the "anti-involution" initiative emphasized by the central government, which aims to enhance product quality and eliminate low-price competition [1][7]. - The machine tool industry is projected to experience a recovery in profitability due to government policies aimed at addressing "involution" and improving market conditions [7]. - The company has successfully expanded its product line and improved market competitiveness through cost optimization and technological advancements [7]. - The company is enhancing its production capacity and accelerating its overseas expansion, with new facilities established in Germany and Serbia [7]. - The revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to 37.32 billion CNY, 42.85 billion CNY, and 48.89 billion CNY, respectively, with net profit estimates of 6.20 billion CNY, 7.30 billion CNY, and 8.48 billion CNY for the same period [7]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 3,352 million CNY in 2024 to 4,889 million CNY in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 14.1% [3][8]. - The net profit is expected to decline by 14.2% in 2024, followed by a recovery with growth rates of 18.6%, 17.7%, and 16.2% in the subsequent years [3][8]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to increase from 1.00 CNY in 2024 to 1.62 CNY in 2027 [3][8]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 19 in 2024 to 12 in 2027, indicating a more attractive valuation over time [3][8].