Nvidia(US:NVDA) Guohai Securities·2025-07-16 04:31Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the computer industry [1][14]. Core Insights - NVIDIA's announcement of resuming H20 chip supply to China is expected to open significant opportunities for its business in the region, potentially alleviating the computational power anxiety faced by Chinese AI companies [5][6]. - The Chinese AI chip market is projected to reach approximately $50 billion in the next two to three years, indicating strong growth potential [6]. - Major cloud service providers are optimistic about capital expenditures, with Microsoft planning to invest $80 billion in AI infrastructure for FY2025, and other companies like Google and Amazon also announcing substantial investments [7][8]. - Prior to the export restrictions, the H20 chip was in high demand in China, contributing significantly to NVIDIA's revenue [8][9]. Summary by Sections Recent Performance - The computer industry has outperformed the CSI 300 index, with a 12-month performance of 60.2% compared to 15.6% for the index [3]. Supply Side - The resumption of H20 chip supply is crucial for NVIDIA, which faced a loss of $4.5 billion due to previous export restrictions [5][6]. - The H20 chip is recognized for its superior specifications, making it a key player in the Chinese AI market [9][10]. Demand Side - Domestic and international cloud providers are increasing their capital expenditures, with significant investments planned for AI and data center capabilities [7][8]. - Chinese tech giants like Tencent and Alibaba are also ramping up their capital expenditures, focusing heavily on AI infrastructure [8]. Investment Strategy - The report suggests that the resumption of H20 supply will boost confidence in the domestic AI market and expand overall computational capacity, supporting growth in the sector [10]. - Recommended stocks include AI processors, computing rental services, server manufacturers, core components, and IDC providers [10].