Nvidia(US:NVDA) Guoxin Securities·2025-07-16 05:17Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The recovery of sales for NVIDIA's H20 chip is expected to clear inventory and boost capital expenditure (Capex) among domestic cloud providers, leading to increased demand in the cloud sector [3][4] - The introduction of the H20 chip, which is a compliant version tailored for the Chinese market, is anticipated to significantly reduce the time and costs associated with hardware investment and actual usage, accelerating the transition of domestic enterprises to cloud services [4][5] Summary by Relevant Sections AI Chip Computing Layer - The resumption of H20 sales will lead to inventory clearance and increased capital expenditure, with the potential for continued positive Capex growth if the supply of special GPUs proceeds smoothly [3][5] - The H20 chip, while having reduced performance compared to the H100, remains a primary choice for domestic AI developers due to its compatibility with the CUDA ecosystem [5][6] - The expected inventory loss related to H20 is projected to reach around $4.5 billion, with total inventory recovery potentially exceeding $10 billion [6] Domestic Cloud Providers - Domestic cloud providers maintained high growth rates in Q2, with expectations for accelerated growth in the second half of the year as customer solutions are implemented [9][10] - The recovery of H20 supply is expected to significantly increase capital expenditure among domestic cloud providers, positively impacting downstream demand [9][10] - Despite a slight decrease in the number of AI customers in Q2, the penetration rate of scenarios continues to improve, indicating a robust growth trajectory for cloud services [9] AI Model Layer - The second quarter saw a concentration of model development among leading domestic tech firms, which are rapidly catching up to international standards and fostering an open-source ecosystem [13][17] - Major companies like Alibaba, ByteDance, Tencent, and Baidu are actively enhancing their AI models and tools, contributing to a vibrant AI ecosystem [15][16][17]