YTL(SZ:000960) China Post Securities·2025-07-16 08:59Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative increase in stock price of over 20% compared to the benchmark index within the next six months [2][14]. Core Insights - The company is projected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 10.2-11.2 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 27.52% to 40.03%. The net profit for Q2 2025 is expected to be between 5.21-6.21 billion yuan, with a quarter-on-quarter growth of 4.41% to 24.45% and a year-on-year growth of 9.92% to 31.01% [4][5]. - The growth in performance is primarily driven by the increase in market prices for tin, copper, and zinc, alongside effective cost reduction measures and production optimization [4][5]. - The company plans to produce 90,000 tons of tin, 125,000 tons of copper, and 131,600 tons of zinc in 2025, with Q1 production figures showing 24,200 tons of tin, 24,400 tons of copper, and 33,300 tons of zinc [5]. Financial Projections - The company is expected to generate revenues of 48.36 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 15.21%. The projected revenues for 2026 and 2027 are 51.90 billion yuan and 54.68 billion yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 7.32% and 5.36% [6][10]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 23.09 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 59.86%. The expected net profits for 2026 and 2027 are 25.50 billion yuan and 27.38 billion yuan, with growth rates of 10.45% and 7.36% [6][10]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 1.40 yuan in 2025, increasing to 1.55 yuan in 2026 and 1.66 yuan in 2027 [6][10]. Market Conditions - The report notes that while there may be short-term supply disruptions, the long-term price trend for tin is expected to rise due to ongoing demand from the semiconductor industry, which is projected to grow at around 11% globally [6][10]. - The company has announced a share buyback plan to protect shareholder interests, indicating confidence in future growth [5].