BIDU(US:BIDU) Goldman Sachs·2025-07-16 15:25Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the Robotaxi industry growth, raising the Total Addressable Market (TAM) estimates for China by 9% to 35% for the years 2026 to 2035, expecting the market to reach US$14 billion by 2030 and US$61 billion by 2035 [1][11]. Core Insights - The report highlights several factors driving the growth of the Robotaxi industry, including advancements in technology, new riding experiences, support for online ride-hailing mobility, and the emergence of new business models for fleet owners [1]. - The penetration rate of Robotaxis in China is projected to reach 10% by 2030 and 29% by 2035, with fleet size estimates increasing from 474,000 to 535,000 for 2030 and from 1.9 million to 2.3 million for 2035 [11][14]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The report indicates that Robotaxi operators in China are optimistic about long-term growth, with significant advancements in software and hardware improving safety and user experience [1]. - The report notes that the shift to Robotaxis can alleviate the expected retirement of 4 million human drivers by 2035, providing a solution to fill the gap in the labor market [1]. Financial Projections - The revised TAM for the Robotaxi market in China is expected to grow to US$14 billion in 2030 and US$61 billion in 2035, reflecting increases of 20% and 31% from previous forecasts [11][13]. - The report also details the expected revenue per vehicle in Tier-1 cities, projected to increase to US$32,000 by 2035, up from US$10,000 in 2024 [16][17]. Fleet Size and Penetration - The report raises the fleet size estimates for Robotaxis, projecting 535,000 units by 2030 and 2.3 million by 2035, representing 10% and 29% of the shared mobility fleet, respectively [11][14]. - The report emphasizes the acceleration of commercialization efforts by leading Chinese Robotaxi companies, with significant fleet expansions and partnerships, such as Pony AI's goal of 1,000 vehicles by 2025 and Baidu's plans for large fleets in Dubai and Abu Dhabi [10][11].