银龙股份（603969）：进击的预应力材料龙头

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, with an upgrade noted [10]. Core Insights - The company is a leading player in the domestic prestressed materials industry, with stable and increasing downstream demand in sectors such as water conservancy, highway bridges, and high-speed rail construction. The company leverages advanced technology to continuously launch high-performance prestressed products, enhancing the lifespan of downstream products while reducing construction costs, leading to an upgrade in product structure [3][6]. - The overseas market presents significant growth potential, with expectations for the company to achieve greater breakthroughs [3]. Company Overview - The company focuses on prestressed materials and rail transit supporting materials, serving downstream sectors including railways, water conservancy, bridges, and civil applications. Established in 1978 and listed in 2015, the company has shown stable performance with projected revenue of 3.05 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting accelerated growth. The net profit from 2012 to 2023 has remained between 100 million to 200 million yuan, with a forecasted profit of 237 million yuan in 2024, marking a 38% year-on-year increase [6][28]. Prestressed Materials - The demand for prestressed materials remains robust, particularly in traditional infrastructure projects, with structural growth observed in water conservancy investments maintaining over 10% growth annually. The company is positioned to benefit from this demand, especially in providing prestressed steel wires to PCCP enterprises [6][34]. - The industry has undergone a supply-side clearance, with many small enterprises exiting due to inefficiencies, allowing the company to potentially increase its market share, which is currently about 4.6% with a projected sales volume of 250,000 tons in 2024 [7][44]. High-Strength Product Development - The market for high-quality prestressed products is expanding due to increasing safety and quality requirements in construction. New standards have been introduced, raising the strength requirements for materials used in bridges and high-speed rail, which the company is well-positioned to meet with its high-strength prestressed materials [8][52]. - The company has developed high-strength products that are being utilized in major bridge and high-speed rail projects, contributing significantly to its expected performance in 2024 [8][67]. Rail Transit Sector - The demand for rail transit materials is on the rise, with fixed asset investment in railways expected to reach 850.6 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 11.3%. The company anticipates a 31% increase in revenue from rail transit products in 2024, amounting to 400 million yuan [9][73]. - The III-type track slab is gaining traction, with market demand projected to reach 4 billion yuan by 2028, doubling from 2024 levels. The company is a key player in the development of this product [9][78]. Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 350 million yuan and 530 million yuan in 2025 and 2026, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 18 and 12 [10].