Polaris Bay (SH:600155) Huachuang Securities·2025-07-17 06:14Group 1: Inflation and CPI Data - In June, the US CPI increased year-on-year from 2.4% to 2.7%, matching expectations, while core CPI rose from 2.8% to 2.9%, slightly below the 3% forecast[2] - Month-on-month, CPI rose by 0.3%, consistent with expectations, while core CPI increased by 0.2%, below the expected 0.3%[2] - The proportion of CPI items with year-on-year increases exceeding 2% rose from 40.8% to 44.1%, indicating a broadening inflationary trend[24] Group 2: Tariff Impact on CPI - The estimated impact of tariffs on CPI shows that if core goods prices remained at February levels, the tariff effect could account for 14% of CPI; if prices followed last year's downward trend, the effect could be 40%[4] - The remaining unaccounted tariff impact on core goods prices is estimated to be around 2.7-2.9 percentage points, translating to an overall CPI impact of 0.5-0.54 percentage points[23] - For specific high-import-dependency goods, tariffs have been reflected in CPI as follows: toys and games (52%), furniture (70%), clothing (10%) if prices remained at February levels[18] Group 3: Market Expectations and Economic Outlook - Market expectations for interest rate cuts have slightly cooled, with the anticipated number of cuts for the year decreasing from 1.93 to 1.76, and the probability of a September cut dropping from 60.1% to 55%[2] - Bloomberg's consensus forecast for year-on-year CPI in Q3 and Q4 is 3.1% and 3.2%, respectively, reflecting the anticipated impact of remaining tariffs[23]