Nanhua Futures(SH:603093) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-07-17 11:52Report Overview - Report Name: Nanhua Futures Tin Risk Management Daily Report - Date: July 17, 2025 - Research Team: Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Research Team [1] 1. Tin Price and Volatility - Latest closing price: 263,960 yuan/ton - Monthly price range forecast: 245,000 - 263,000 yuan/ton - Current volatility: 14.23% - Current volatility historical percentile: 25.7% [2] 2. Tin Risk Management Suggestions Inventory Management - Situation: High finished - product inventory, worried about price decline - Spot exposure: Long - Strategy: Short Shanghai Tin main futures contract (75% at around 275,000 yuan/ton); Sell call options (SN2509C275000, 25% when volatility is appropriate) [2] Raw Material Management - Situation: Low raw material inventory, worried about price increase - Spot exposure: Short - Strategy: Long Shanghai Tin main futures contract (50% at around 230,000 yuan/ton); Sell put options (SN2509P245000, 25% when volatility is appropriate) [2] 3. Fundamental News Bullish Factors - Easing of China - US tariff policies - Semiconductor sector still in an expansion cycle - Lower - than - expected resumption of production in Myanmar [3] Bearish Factors - Tariff policy reversals - Inflow of Burmese tin ore into China - Slowdown in the expansion of the semiconductor sector and a shift from the expansion to the contraction cycle [4][5] 4. Tin Futures Market Data (Daily) | Futures Contract | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Tin Main | yuan/ton | 263,960 | 0 | 0% | | Shanghai Tin Continuous 1 | yuan/ton | 264,130 | 0 | 0% | | Shanghai Tin Continuous 3 | yuan/ton | 263,850 | 0 | 0% | | LME Tin 3M | US dollars/ton | 32,990 | - 270 | - 0.81% | | Shanghai - London Ratio | Ratio | 7.96 | 0.02 | 0.25% | [5] 5. Tin Spot Market Data (Weekly) | Product | Unit | Latest Price | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Non - ferrous tin ingot | yuan/ton | 261,900 | - 3,100 | - 1.17% | | 1 tin premium | yuan/ton | 500 | 100 | 25% | | 40% tin concentrate | yuan/ton | 251,600 | - 1,400 | - 0.55% | | 60% tin concentrate | yuan/ton | 255,600 | - 1,400 | - 0.54% | | Solder bar (60A) Shanghai Non - ferrous | yuan/ton | 171,250 | - 1,000 | - 0.58% | | Solder bar (63A) Shanghai Non - ferrous | yuan/ton | 178,750 | - 1,000 | - 0.56% | | Lead - free solder | yuan/ton | 269,750 | - 1,500 | - 0.55% | [8][11] 6. Tin Import Profit and Loss and Processing Fees (Daily) | Item | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Tin import profit and loss | yuan/ton | - 16,438.56 | 1,162.68 | - 6.61% | | 40% tin ore processing fee | yuan/ton | 12,200 | 0 | 0% | | 60% tin ore processing fee | yuan/ton | 10,550 | 0 | 0% | [13] 7. Tin Warehouse Inventory Data SHFE (Daily) | Location | Unit | Latest Quantity | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Total tin warehouse receipts | tons | 6,777 | - 70 | - 1.02% | | Tin warehouse receipts in Guangdong | tons | 4,428 | - 32 | - 0.72% | | Tin warehouse receipts in Shanghai | tons | 1,458 | - 38 | - 2.54% | | Total LME tin inventory | tons | 2,035 | 55 | 2.78% | [17]