Nanhua Futures(SH:603093) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-07-17 11:52Report Overview - Report Title: Nanhua Futures Copper Risk Management Daily Report - Report Date: July 17, 2025 - Research Team: Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Research Team [1] 1. Copper Price and Volatility - Latest copper price: 77,980 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 73,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton - Current volatility: 10.30%, and the current volatility's historical percentile is 15.0% [2] 2. Copper Risk Management Suggestions Inventory Management - For high finished - product inventory and fear of price decline: - Sell 75% of Shanghai Copper Main - contract futures at around 82,000 yuan/ton - Sell 25% of call options (CU2509C82000) when volatility is relatively stable [2] Raw Material Management - For low raw - material inventory and fear of price increase: - Buy 75% of Shanghai Copper Main - contract futures at around 75,000 yuan/ton [2] 3. News and Factors - Fundamental situation: Stable [3] Bullish Factors - Easing of Sino - US tariff policies - Decrease in LME inventory levels [4] Bearish Factors - Tariff policy fluctuations - Global demand reduction due to tariff policies - The Fed keeping interest rates high - The US dollar index hovering at a low level - Increased expectation of Fed rate cuts [5][6][8] 4. Copper Futures and Spot Data Futures Data | Futures Type | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Copper Main - contract | yuan/ton | 77,980 | 0 | 0% | | Shanghai Copper Continuous - 1 | yuan/ton | 77,970 | - 120 | - 0.15% | | Shanghai Copper Continuous - 3 | yuan/ton | 77,900 | 0 | 0% | | LME Copper 3M | US dollars/ton | 9,637 | - 20.5 | - 0.21% | | Shanghai - London Ratio | Ratio | 8.13 | - 0.03 | - 0.37% | [7] Spot Data | Spot Type | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 Copper | yuan/ton | 78,060 | 65 | 0.08% | | Shanghai Wumaohui | yuan/ton | 78,040 | - 60 | - 0.08% | | Guangdong Nanchu | yuan/ton | 77,990 | - 40 | - 0.05% | | Yangtze River Non - ferrous | yuan/ton | 78,120 | - 70 | - 0.09% | | Shanghai Non - ferrous Premium/Discount | yuan/ton | 95 | - 40 | - 29.63% | | Shanghai Wumaohui Premium/Discount | yuan/ton | 70 | 10 | 16.67% | | Guangdong Nanchu Premium/Discount | yuan/ton | 55 | - 15 | - 21.43% | | Yangtze River Non - ferrous Premium/Discount | yuan/ton | 135 | - 10 | - 6.9% | [9] 5. Copper Scrap - to - Refined Spread Tax - included | Spread Type | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Current scrap - to - refined spread | yuan/ton | 784.57 | 240 | 44.07% | | Reasonable scrap - to - refined spread | yuan/ton | 1481.25 | 2.4 | 0.16% | | Price advantage | yuan/ton | - 696.68 | 237.6 | - 25.43% | [11] Tax - excluded | Spread Type | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Current scrap - to - refined spread | yuan/ton | 5425 | 240 | 4.63% | | Reasonable scrap - to - refined spread | yuan/ton | 6121.88 | 16.66 | 0.27% | | Price advantage | yuan/ton | - 696.88 | 223.34 | - 24.27% | [12] 6. Copper Warehouse Receipts and Inventories SHFE Warehouse Receipts | Warehouse Receipt Type | Unit | Latest Quantity | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Total SHFE copper warehouse receipts | tons | 50,242 | 109 | 0.22% | | Total international copper warehouse receipts | tons | 10,236 | 0 | 0% | | SHFE copper warehouse receipts in Shanghai | tons | 14,637 | 170 | 1.18% | | Total bonded SHFE copper warehouse receipts | tons | 0 | 0 | - 100% | | Total duty - paid SHFE copper warehouse receipts | tons | 50,242 | 109 | 0.22% | [15] LME Copper Inventory | Inventory Type | Unit | Latest Quantity | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Total LME copper inventory | tons | 121,000 | 10,525 | 9.53% | | LME copper inventory in Europe | tons | 31,300 | 0 | 0% | | LME copper inventory in Asia | tons | 79,175 | 850 | 1.09% | | LME copper inventory in North America | tons | 0 | 0 | - 100% | | Total LME copper registered warehouse receipts | tons | 108,675 | 10,825 | 11.06% | | Total LME copper cancelled warehouse receipts | tons | 12,325 | - 300 | - 2.38% | [17] COMEX Copper Inventory | Inventory Type | Unit | Latest Quantity | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Total COMEX copper inventory | tons | 239,435 | 10,781 | 4.71% | | Total COMEX copper registered warehouse receipts | tons | 107,011 | 6,846 | - 1% | | Total COMEX copper cancelled warehouse receipts | tons | 132,424 | 2,256 | 1.73% | [19] 7. Copper Import Profit and Processing | Item | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Copper import profit and loss | yuan/ton | - 221.27 | - 90.51 | 69.22% | | Copper concentrate TC | US dollars/ton | - 43.25 | 0 | 0% | [20]