Nanhua Futures(SH:603093) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-07-17 12:47Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current import quota policy has not been finalized. Supported by post - pricing by textile enterprises and low inventory, domestic cotton prices are showing a strong trend. The 09 contract's open interest has increased significantly, and the 9 - 1 spread continues the positive spread trend. In the short term, cotton prices may be strong due to capital inflows, but the pressure of downstream finished - product inventory in the off - season may limit the upside. Attention should be paid to domestic policies and adjustments to the China - US trade agreement [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Cotton Price Forecast and Risk Management - Price Range Forecast: The monthly price range of cotton is predicted to be between 13,600 and 14,400, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 0.0681 and a 3 - year historical percentile of 0.0986 [3]. - Risk Management Strategies - Inventory Management: For enterprises with high inventory worried about price drops, they can short Zhengzhou cotton futures (CF2509) at 14,200 - 14,400 with a 50% hedging ratio. They can also sell call options (CF509C14400) at 180 - 220 with a 75% ratio to reduce costs and lock in selling prices [3]. - Procurement Management: For enterprises with low procurement inventory, they can buy Zhengzhou cotton futures (CF2509) at 13,600 - 13,700 with a 50% hedging ratio. They can also sell put options (CF509P13600) at 100 - 150 with a 75% ratio to reduce procurement costs and lock in buying prices [3]. Core Contradictions - The uncertainty of import quota policies, the support from post - pricing and low inventory, and the pressure from off - season demand and downstream inventory are the main factors affecting cotton prices. The short - term trend may be strong, but the upside is limited [4]. Market Influencing Factors - Likely Positive Factors: High tariffs have led to a significant decline in cotton imports this year, and the reserve cotton has not been sold. The inventory of Xinjiang cotton is decreasing rapidly, and the spot basis is firm. The market is expected to be in a tight - balance state at the end of the year [5]. - Likely Negative Factors: The downstream is in the off - season, with lower load in spinning and weaving factories, low raw - material procurement enthusiasm, and increasing finished - product inventory. The high temperature in Xinjiang has accelerated the growth of new cotton, and the overall growth is good, which is optimistic for the new - year's output [5]. Futures Price and Spread - Futures Prices: The closing prices of cotton 01, 05, 09 are 13,960, 13,925, 14,250 respectively, with daily increases of 95, 90, 260 and corresponding increases of 0.69%, 0.65%, 1.86%. The closing prices of棉纱 01, 05, 09 are 20,285, 0, 20,430 respectively, with daily increases of 150, - 20060, 250 and corresponding increases of 0.74%, - 100%, 1.24% [5][7]. - Spreads: The cotton basis is 1104 with a daily decrease of 178. The spreads of cotton 01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01 are 35, - 325, 290 respectively, with daily changes of 5, - 170, 165. The flower - yarn spread is 6200 with a daily increase of 10. The internal - external cotton spread is 1515 with a daily decrease of 136, and the internal - external yarn spread is - 409 with a daily increase of 180 [8]. Cotton Price Index - The prices of CCI 3128B, CCI 2227B, CCI 2129B, FCI Index S, FCI Index M, FCI Index L are 15,354, 13,430, 15,661, 13,951, 13,757, 13,517 respectively, with daily increases of 82, 96, 95, 107, 106, 106 and corresponding increases of 0.54%, 0.72%, 0.61%, 0.77%, 0.78%, 0.79% [9].