开源证券晨会纪要-20250717

Group 1: Macro Economic Insights - The US inflation data for June 2025 shows a year-on-year increase of 2.7% and a month-on-month increase of 0.3%, exceeding market expectations [2][6][7] - Core CPI also increased by 2.9% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month, indicating a synchronized rebound in inflation [2][7][8] - The overall inflation level is expected to continue rising, driven by core inflation and the effects of tariffs [8][9][10] Group 2: Industry Insights - Electronics - The resumption of H20 supply is expected to accelerate capital expenditure (Capex) among domestic internet companies, which had previously faced uncertainty due to the H20 embargo [3][13] - With the uncertainty lifted, project tenders are likely to restart, leading to the release of orders in the domestic computing power industry chain [3][13] - Domestic internet companies are projected to significantly increase their Capex, with Alibaba planning to invest over 380 billion yuan in cloud and AI hardware infrastructure over the next three years [15] Group 3: Company Insights - Perfect World - Perfect World is expected to achieve a significant turnaround in profitability in H1 2025, with projected net profit ranging from 480 to 520 million yuan [4][19] - The core gaming business is performing steadily, with anticipated net profit contributions from new game launches and cost-reduction measures [19][20] - The company maintains a "buy" rating based on its clear product pipeline and the expected performance of its upcoming game "异环" [4][19][20]