南华期货锡风险管理日报-20250718

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of the tin market remain stable, with both positive and negative factors present. Positive factors include the easing of Sino - US tariff policies, the semiconductor sector still being in an expansion cycle, and the slower - than - expected resumption of production in Myanmar. Negative factors are the potential recurrence of tariff policies, the inflow of Burmese tin ore into China, and the slowdown of the semiconductor sector's expansion and its transition to a contraction cycle [3][4][5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Tin Price Volatility and Risk Management - The latest closing price of tin is 261,920 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 245,000 - 263,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 14.31%, and the current volatility's historical percentile is 25.9% [2] - For inventory management with high finished - product inventory and concerns about price drops, it is recommended to sell 75% of the Shanghai Tin main futures contract at around 275,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of the SN2509C275000 call option when the volatility is appropriate. For raw material management with low raw material inventory and concerns about price increases, it is recommended to buy 50% of the Shanghai Tin main futures contract at around 230,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of the SN2509P245000 put option when the volatility is appropriate [2] 3.2 Tin Futures and Spot Data 3.2.1 Futures Data (Daily) - The latest price of the Shanghai Tin main contract is 261,920 yuan/ton, with no daily change. The Shanghai Tin continuous - one contract is 262,130 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai Tin continuous - three contract is 262,120 yuan/ton, both with no daily change. The LME Tin 3M price is 32,990 US dollars/ton, down 270 US dollars or 0.81%. The Shanghai - London ratio is 7.99, up 0.03 or 0.38% [5] 3.2.2 Spot Data (Weekly) - The price of Shanghai Non - ferrous tin ingots is 261,900 yuan/ton, down 3,100 yuan or 1.17%. The 1 tin premium is 500 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan or 25%. The price of 40% tin concentrate is 251,600 yuan/ton, down 1,400 yuan or 0.55%. The price of 60% tin concentrate is 255,600 yuan/ton, down 1,400 yuan or 0.54%. The price of 60A solder bars in Shanghai Non - ferrous is 171,250 yuan/ton, down 1,000 yuan or 0.58%. The price of 63A solder bars in Shanghai Non - ferrous is 178,750 yuan/ton, down 1,000 yuan or 0.56%. The price of lead - free solder is 269,750 yuan/ton, down 1,500 yuan or 0.55% [8][11] 3.3 Tin Import and Processing - The tin import profit and loss is - 15,147.4 yuan/ton, up 1,291.16 yuan or - 7.85%. The 40% tin ore processing fee is 12,200 yuan/ton with no change, and the 60% tin ore processing fee is 10,550 yuan/ton with no change [13] 3.4 Tin Inventory - The total warehouse receipt quantity of tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 6,777 tons, down 70 tons or 1.02%. The warehouse receipt quantity in Guangdong is 4,428 tons, down 32 tons or 0.72%. The warehouse receipt quantity in Shanghai is 1,458 tons, down 38 tons or 2.54%. The total LME tin inventory is 2,035 tons, up 55 tons or 2.78% [17]