Nanhua Futures(SH:603093) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-07-18 02:25Report Overview - Report Name: Nanhua Futures Copper Risk Management Daily Report - Date: July 18, 2025 - Research Team: Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Research Team [1] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The copper market's fundamentals remain stable. There are both利多 and利空 factors.利多 factors include the easing of Sino - US tariff policies and a decrease in LME inventory levels, while利空 factors involve the volatility of tariff policies, reduced global demand due to tariff policies, and the Fed maintaining high interest rates [3][4][5] Detailed Summary by Section Copper Price and Volatility - The latest copper price is 77,840 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 73,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 9.99%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 13.8% [2] Copper Risk Management Suggestions - Inventory Management: For high - level finished product inventory and concerns about price drops, sell 75% of the Shanghai Copper main futures contract at around 82,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of the CU2509C82000 call option when volatility is relatively stable [2] - Raw Material Management: For low - level raw material inventory and concerns about price increases, buy 75% of the Shanghai Copper main futures contract at around 75,000 yuan/ton [2] Copper Futures and Spot Data - Futures Data: The latest price of the Shanghai Copper main contract is 77,840 yuan/ton with no daily change; the Shanghai Copper continuous - one contract is 77,850 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan (-0.15%); the Shanghai Copper continuous - three contract is 77,790 yuan/ton with no change; the LME Copper 3M is 9,637 dollars/ton, down 20.5 dollars (-0.21%); the Shanghai - London ratio is 8.15, up 0.02 (0.25%) [7] - Spot Data: The latest price of Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 copper is 78,060 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan (0.08%); Shanghai Wumao is 78,040 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan (-0.08%); Guangdong Nanchu is 77,990 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan (-0.05%); Yangtze Non - ferrous is 78,120 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan (-0.09%) [9] Copper Inventory Data - SHFE Warehouse Receipts: The total Shanghai Copper warehouse receipts are 50,242 tons, up 109 tons (0.22%); the total international copper warehouse receipts are 10,236 tons with no change [15] - LME Copper Inventory: The total LME copper inventory is 122,150 tons, up 1,150 tons (0.95%); the European inventory is 31,150 tons, down 150 tons (-0.48%); the Asian inventory is 89,850 tons, up 10,675 tons (13.48%); the North American inventory is 0 tons [17] - COMEX Copper Inventory: The total COMEX copper inventory is 239,435 tons, up 10,781 tons (4.71%); the registered warehouse receipts are 107,011 tons, down 6,846 tons (-1%); the cancelled warehouse receipts are 132,424 tons, up 2,256 tons (1.73%) [19] Copper Import and Processing Data - The copper import profit and loss is - 1.55 yuan/ton, up 219.72 yuan (-99.3%); the copper concentrate TC is - 43.17 dollars/ton, up 0.08 dollars (-0.18%) [20]