LIUGONG(SZ:000528) Huaxin Securities·2025-07-18 05:35Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [9] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 1.18 billion to 1.28 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 20% to 30% [5] - The company's strong performance is driven by both domestic and international markets, with significant growth in its earthmoving machinery business due to favorable equipment renewal policies and recovering industry demand [5] - The management transition has not affected the company's market-oriented reforms, and ongoing incentive mechanisms are expected to drive long-term development [6] - The company's overseas business has shown high-quality growth, with revenue from international operations reaching 13.76 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 20.05% [7] - The company forecasts revenues of 34.86 billion, 39.66 billion, and 44.45 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.01, 1.43, and 1.94 yuan [9] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company is projected to achieve a net profit of 1.18 billion to 1.28 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, with a growth rate of 20% to 30% compared to the same period in 2024 [5] - The expected net profit for 2025 is 2.04 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 53.7% [11] Market Dynamics - The domestic market benefits from equipment renewal policies and recovering demand, while the international market is supported by a comprehensive globalization strategy [5][7] - The company's overseas revenue accounted for 45.77% of total revenue in 2024, indicating a significant contribution from international operations [7] Management and Strategy - The management transition is expected to maintain the company's strategic direction and market-oriented operations, with a focus on enhancing profitability and shareholder returns [6] - The company has implemented a dual-track incentive mechanism combining market-based compensation and equity incentives to boost core team performance [6] Future Outlook - The company anticipates continued revenue growth, with projected revenues increasing from 34.86 billion yuan in 2025 to 44.45 billion yuan in 2027 [9] - The expected EPS growth reflects the company's strong operational performance and market positioning [9]