Guotai Haitong Securities(SH:601211) Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-07-18 10:10Report Overview - The report is titled "How does the green electricity consumption ratio increase the cost of commodities? - Joint Research on Green Finance (IV)" and was released on July 18, 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views - The essence of green certificates is an energy attribute certificate. After the release of Document 1044 in 2023, the issuance of green certificates achieved full coverage, but the demand needs further activation, resulting in a serious oversupply of green certificates [3][6] - After the introduction of multiple policies such as the connection requirements between green certificates and CCER, the sustainable development price settlement mechanism, and the green consumption ratio, the fundamentals of green certificates have improved marginally, but the pattern of serious oversupply has not been reversed [3] - Affected by Document 669, since the calculation of the green electricity consumption ratio of key energy - using industries is mainly based on green certificates, enterprises in relevant industries may need to purchase green certificates externally, and the cost of their products will increase slightly. It is estimated that the cost increase rates of the electrolytic aluminum, polysilicon, steel, and cement industries in 2025 will be 0.3%, 0.6%, 0.0%, and 0.0% (theoretical values) respectively, and the actual cost increase rate will be lower than the above values [3][16] - In the future, the green electricity consumption ratio of key energy - using units and industries will not be lower than the average level of the national renewable energy electricity total consumption responsibility weight, and the competent authorities will gradually introduce green electricity consumption ratio targets for new industries. The demand for green certificates is expected to continue to improve, and the green certificate cost of relevant industries may increase year by year [3][19] Summary by Directory 1. Green certificate issuance achieved full coverage, but demand needs further activation - Green certificates are the only proof of the environmental attributes of renewable energy electricity in China and are used for the accounting and certification of renewable energy electricity consumption. After the release of Document 1044 in 2023, the issuance of green certificates achieved full coverage [6] - Green certificate demand includes mandatory consumption demand from key energy - using industries and voluntary consumption demand from multinational, export - oriented, and listed enterprises. As of May 2025, the cumulative tradable green certificates exceeded 3 billion. From January to May 2025, the green certificate procurement demand accounted for about 38% of the cumulative issuance in that year, and about 80% of the tradable green certificates in 2025 were surplus [9] 2. The fundamentals of green certificates have improved marginally, but the pattern of serious oversupply has not been reversed - Under the connection requirements between green certificates and CCER, the green certificates corresponding to the emission reduction volume will be cancelled. However, compared with the total supply of green certificates, the cancellation scale is extremely small [10] - The mechanism electricity will not obtain green certificate benefits repeatedly, but the specific implementation details have not been announced. How the green certificates corresponding to the mechanism electricity are actually handled will directly affect the green certificate market [10][11] - The introduction of the green electricity consumption ratio has led to a marginal increase in the demand for green certificates, but it has not reversed the pattern of serious oversupply. The green certificate trading demand of the four major traditional high - energy - consuming industries is about 300 million. The year - on - year increase in green certificate trading demand brought about by the green electricity consumption ratio target may be less than 80%. The green certificate trading demand of the four major traditional high - energy - consuming industries may consume about 20% of the tradable green certificates in 2025. If the competent authorities relax the requirements for the production year of green certificates, the supporting effect of the green electricity consumption ratio target on the green certificate price in 2025 will be severely weakened [12][13][14] 3. The short - term cost increase is limited, and the green certificate cost may increase year by year - Based on Document 669, the cost of products in relevant industries will increase slightly. It is estimated that the cost increase rates of the electrolytic aluminum, polysilicon, steel, and cement industries in 2025 will be 0.3%, 0.6%, 0.0%, and 0.0% (theoretical values) respectively, and the actual cost increase rate will be lower [16] - By 2030, the green electricity consumption ratio should not be lower than the average level of the national renewable energy electricity total consumption responsibility weight. The national renewable energy electricity total consumption responsibility weight is expected to increase slightly each year, but the increase is expected to be limited [19]