南京银行2025年7月宏观利率展望：利率小幅上行调整，基本面利多逢高配置

Economic Overview - In June, the economy showed weak demand but strong production, with GDP growth at 5.3% for the first half of the year, easing pressure to achieve a full-year target of 5%[2] - Domestic demand is under significant pressure, with real estate, infrastructure, and manufacturing investments continuing to decline, while consumption growth has also slowed[5] - Export growth has increased due to a "rush to export" effect, providing some support to the economy[2] Investment and Consumption - Fixed asset investment growth for January to June was 2.8%, down 0.9 percentage points from the previous value, with real estate investment down 11.2%[9] - Retail sales growth in June was 4.8%, a decrease of 1.6 percentage points from the previous month, primarily due to reduced subsidy effects and a decline in dining consumption[16] - Real estate sales growth continued to decline, with a 3.5% drop in sales and a 6.2% decrease in funding sources[12] Monetary Policy and Liquidity - The central bank's monetary policy emphasizes "stabilizing prices," with liquidity expected to remain balanced and slightly loose[3] - The average interbank repo rates have decreased, with DR007 fluctuating within 10 basis points above the policy rate[3] - The central bank conducted a 1.4 trillion yuan reverse repo operation in mid-July, indicating a loose monetary stance[4] Bond Market Strategy - Bond yields have slightly adjusted due to rising stock markets and marginal increases in funding rates, but rates are unlikely to rise significantly without improvements in the economic fundamentals[4] - The bond market is expected to experience low volatility, with strategies focusing on high-entry points for bond purchases[6] Inflation and Price Trends - CPI growth turned positive in June at 0.1%, driven by rising industrial consumer goods prices, particularly oil[46] - PPI continued to decline, with a year-on-year drop of 3.6%, influenced by falling energy prices and pressures on export prices[52]