南华期货沥青风险管理日报-20250718

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The supply - demand structure of asphalt shows a weakening trend, with weekly production increasing by 28% year - on - year and demand growing by 10% year - on - year. The inventory structure features factory inventory accumulation and social inventory depletion, and speculative demand is weakening. The basis in Shandong and East China has weakened due to increased开工率, while the crack spread remains high. In the short term, the supply increase exceeds expectations, and demand is in the off - season due to rainfall. The overall fundamentals are weakening month - on - month, and the absolute price shows a volatile trend due to the strong performance of crude oil on the cost side. In the long - term, demand is expected to pick up as construction conditions improve in August, and the peak season is still worth looking forward to. Short - term attention should be paid to the goods circulation situation and the details and authenticity of the fuel oil consumption refund policy in Shandong [2] 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Asphalt Price and Volatility - The price range forecast for the asphalt main contract in the month is 3400 - 3750 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 22.07% and a historical percentile of 38.62% over 3 years [1] 3.2 Asphalt Risk Management Strategy - Inventory Management: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, they can short the bu2509 asphalt futures according to their inventory situation to lock in profits and make up for production costs. The selling direction is recommended, with a hedging ratio of 25% and an entry range of 3650 - 3750 yuan/ton [1] - Procurement Management: For enterprises with low regular procurement inventory and aiming to purchase according to orders, they can buy the bu2509 asphalt futures at present to lock in procurement costs in advance. The buying direction is recommended, with a hedging ratio of 50% and an entry range of 3300 - 3400 yuan/ton [1] 3.3 Asphalt Price and Basis Data - Spot Price: On July 18, 2025, the Shandong spot price was 3820 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous day, up 10 yuan/ton week - on - week), the Yangtze River Delta spot price was 3780 yuan/ton (unchanged), the North China spot price was 3750 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the South China spot price was 3600 yuan/ton (unchanged, down 10 yuan/ton week - on - week) [4] - Basis: The Shandong spot 09 basis was 165 yuan/ton (down 27 yuan/ton day - on - day, down 39 yuan/ton week - on - week), the Yangtze River Delta spot 09 basis was 125 yuan/ton (down 27 yuan/ton day - on - day, down 49 yuan/ton week - on - week), the North China spot 09 basis was 95 yuan/ton (down 27 yuan/ton day - on - day, down 49 yuan/ton week - on - week), and the South China spot 09 basis was - 55 yuan/ton (down 27 yuan/ton day - on - day, down 59 yuan/ton week - on - week) [4] 3.4 Asphalt Crack Spread Data - On July 18, 2025, the Shandong spot crack spread against Brent was 161.4216 yuan/barrel (unchanged from the previous day, up 7.7092 yuan/barrel week - on - week), and the futures main contract crack spread against Brent was 132.829 yuan/barrel (up 4.6788 yuan/ton day - on - day, up 14.4674 yuan/ton week - on - week) [7] 3.5 Factors Affecting Asphalt Market - Positive Factors: Low factory inventory pressure provides a basis for manufacturers to support prices; demand seasonal peak season; low开工率 and the expectation of catch - up construction in the South [3][6] - Negative Factors: After the end of maintenance, the output of some refineries recovers; the short - term plum rain season in the South drags down demand; the slowdown of social inventory depletion and the weakening of the basis [6]