Nanhua Futures(SH:603093) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-07-18 12:59Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The document does not provide an investment rating for the industry. 2. Core View Supported by the macro "anti-involution" theme, the ethylene glycol price is running strongly under supply-side disturbances. Although the demand shows no sign of improvement, the supply side has frequent accidents, leading to a stronger near-term pattern of ethylene glycol, delaying the inventory accumulation expectation again. With low inventory levels, the price remains prone to rise and difficult to fall. Before the macro narrative materializes, it is expected to remain strong in the short term [3]. 3. Content Summary by Section Polyester Price Range Forecast - Price Range: The monthly price ranges are 4000 - 4600 for ethylene glycol, 6400 - 7300 for PX, 4400 - 5300 for PTA, and 5700 - 6400 for bottle chips [2]. - Volatility: The current 20 - day rolling volatilities are 15.94% for ethylene glycol, 21.59% for PX, 19.17% for PTA, and 15.85% for bottle chips. Their historical percentiles (3 - year) are 27.7%, 67.9%, 48.2%, and 47.9% respectively [2]. Polyester Hedging Strategy - Inventory Management: When the finished - product inventory is high and worried about the decline of ethylene glycol price, the strategies include shorting ethylene glycol futures (EG2509) with a 25% hedging ratio at 4400 - 4500, buying put options (EG2509P4250) and selling call options (EG2509C4500) with a 50% hedging ratio at 10 - 15 and 35 - 60 respectively [2]. - Procurement Management: When the procurement inventory is low, to prevent the rise of ethylene glycol price, strategies are to buy ethylene glycol futures (EG2509) with a 50% hedging ratio at 4200 - 4250, sell put options (EG2509P4250) with a 75% hedging ratio at 25 - 50 [2]. Core Contradiction Macro "anti - involution" theme supports the strong operation of ethylene glycol price under supply - side disturbances. Demand is weak, but supply - side accidents make the near - term pattern stronger, delaying inventory accumulation and keeping the price easy to rise and hard to fall in the short term [3]. 利多解读 The document does not provide specific content for this part. 利空解读 Long - filament manufacturers are rumored to have a 10% production cut plan, which is expected to be partially implemented, affecting the total polyester load by 1 - 2% [5]. Supply - side News - Satellite Petrochemical's first line restart is postponed from mid - August, reducing the production forecast for August - September [7]. - Three ethylene glycol plants in Saudi Arabia with a total capacity of 1.7 million tons/year have restart problems due to infrastructure issues, and the restart time is undetermined. The import volume in August is expected to decrease [7]. Price and Spread Data - Price Changes: On July 18, 2025, compared with the previous day and week, prices of various products such as Brent crude oil, PX, PTA, and ethylene glycol showed different degrees of changes. For example, Brent crude oil was at $69.7/barrel, up $0.1 from the previous day and down $0.7 from the previous week [8]. - Spread Changes: Spreads such as TA1 - 5, TA5 - 9, and EG1 - 5 also had corresponding changes. For example, the PX1 - 5 month spread was 52 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton from the previous day and 14 yuan/ton from the previous week [8]. Processing Fee and Sales Rate - Processing Fees: Processing fees of products like gasoline reforming, aromatics reforming, and bottle chips showed different degrees of change. For example, the bottle chip processing fee was 377 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton from the previous day and 63 yuan/ton from the previous week [9]. - Sales Rates: Sales rates of polyester products such as polyester filament, polyester staple fiber, and polyester chips increased. For example, the polyester filament sales rate was 58.2%, up 20% from the previous day and 22.9% from the previous week [9].