Nanhua Futures(SH:603093) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-07-18 12:59Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, the double - coking futures market may continue to fluctuate strongly. The warm macro - atmosphere, speculative demand, and strong rigid demand support the prices. However, in the medium - to - long term, the strong rise of furnace materials threatens steel mill profits, and high hot metal production may not be sustainable. Steel billet export orders are declining, and inventory accumulation may trigger a negative feedback mechanism. - For trading operations, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines for single - side trading and not to chase high prices. For arbitrage, pay attention to the opportunity of the 9 - 1 reverse spread of coking coal and coke. [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Double - Coking Price Range Forecast - Coking Coal: The monthly price range forecast is 800 - 980, the current 20 - day rolling volatility is 32.68%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 63.89% [3]. - Coke: The monthly price range forecast is 1400 - 1600, the current 20 - day rolling volatility is 25.33%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 48.97% [3]. Double - Coking Risk Management Strategy Suggestions - For inventory hedging when the coke futures price is significantly higher than the spot price and the delivery profit is considerable, with a long spot position, it is recommended to short J2509. The hedging tool is J2509, the selling direction is recommended. The hedging ratio is 25% when the entry range is 1550 - 1600 and 50% when the entry range is 1600 - 1650 [3]. Black Warehouse Receipt Daily Report - Decrease in Warehouse Receipts: The warehouse receipts of rebar decreased by 7169 tons to 87431 tons, hot - rolled coil decreased by 1754 tons to 60747 tons, coking coal decreased by 1100 hands to 500 hands, and ferrosilicon manganese decreased by 3441 sheets to 79931 sheets compared with the previous day [3]. - No Change in Warehouse Receipts: The warehouse receipts of iron ore remained at 3000 hands, coke remained at 760 hands, and ferrosilicon remained at 21950 sheets [3]. Core Contradictions - Short - term Positive Factors: The warm macro - atmosphere leads to a strong rebound in the double - coking futures market. Speculative demand enters the market, tightening spot liquidity and causing coal enterprises to raise prices. The second round of price increases by coking plants next week is likely to be implemented. Steel mills' demand for coking coal and coke procurement is strong, and both speculative and rigid demand support prices [4]. - Medium - to - long - term Negative Factors: The strong rise of furnace materials threatens steel mill profits. High hot - metal production may not be sustainable. Steel billet export orders are declining, and inventory accumulation may trigger a negative feedback mechanism [4]. Bullish Interpretations - Supply - side 2.0 disrupts market sentiment, creating a positive market outlook. - Downstream steel mills have good profits, with a profit per ton of over 100 yuan, and hot - metal production is unlikely to decrease in July. - There is speculation about the Politburo meeting at the end of the month. [4] Bearish Interpretations - Coal mines in Shanxi have复产 unexpectedly. - The military parade on September 3 may affect steel production around Hebei. - The shipment of imported coal is increasing, and the subsequent arrival pressure is rising. [5] Double - Coking Futures and Spot Price Data - Coking Coal: There are differences in the cost of coking coal warehouse receipts and basis for different varieties. For example, the warehouse receipt cost of Tangshan Mongolian No. 5 coking coal is 878 yuan/ton, and the main - contract basis is - 48.5 yuan/ton. The prices of various coking coal varieties have different daily and weekly changes [5]. - Coke: Similar to coking coal, there are differences in the cost of coke warehouse receipts and basis for different varieties. The current spot prices of coke in different regions also show certain changes. For example, the ex - factory price of Lvliang quasi - first - grade wet coke is 1030 yuan/ton [5][6]. - Related Ratios: The current values of the coking profit ratio, ore - coke ratio, screw - coke ratio, and carbon - coal ratio are 73, 0.517, 2.073, and 1.619 respectively, with corresponding daily and weekly changes [5].