Alcoa(US:AA) HUAXI Securities·2025-07-19 11:33Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [3] Core Insights - The report indicates a significant decrease in net profit for the company, with a 70.1% quarter-on-quarter reduction to $164 million, despite a year-on-year increase of 720% [9] - The company faced increased tariff costs of approximately $115 million for aluminum imported from Canada, which impacted profitability [9] - The average realized price for third-party alumina decreased by 5.3% year-on-year and 34.3% quarter-on-quarter, reflecting market pressures [2] Production and Operational Performance - Bauxite production in Q2 2025 was 9.3 million tons, a decrease of 2.1% year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter [1] - Alumina production was 2.351 million tons, down 7.4% year-on-year and slightly down 0.1% quarter-on-quarter [1] - The total alumina shipment volume was 2.384 million tons, reflecting an 8.1% year-on-year decrease but a 2.9% quarter-on-quarter increase [2] Financial Performance - Total revenue from third-party business was $3.018 billion, a decrease of 10.4% quarter-on-quarter but an increase of 3.9% year-on-year [7] - Adjusted EBITDA for the alumina segment was $139 million, down 25.27% year-on-year and 79.07% quarter-on-quarter [5] - The adjusted operating cost per metric ton of produced alumina shipped was $323, reflecting a 3.2% year-on-year increase [2] Market Outlook - The company expects alumina production and shipment volumes for 2025 to remain stable, with estimates between 9.5 million to 9.7 million tons for production and 13.1 million to 13.3 million tons for shipments [18] - The forecast for aluminum production in 2025 is maintained at 2.3 million to 2.5 million tons, with a downward adjustment in shipment forecasts due to delays in the San Ciprián smelter restart [19]