TONGWEI CO.,LTD(SH:600438) HUAXI Securities·2025-07-20 14:28Policy Overview - The current "anti-involution" policy differs from the 2015 supply-side reform, focusing on effective demand shortages and low-end oversupply rather than structural mismatches in supply and demand[1] - The current policy extends to emerging manufacturing sectors like photovoltaics, new energy vehicles, and lithium batteries, which are predominantly private enterprises[1] Industry Capacity and Profitability - Overall industrial capacity utilization and profit margins are low, with further downward pressure expected; policy intervention is needed for market supply-demand rebalancing[2] - Key sectors like automotive manufacturing, electrical machinery (including photovoltaics), and non-metal mineral manufacturing (glass, cement) are in a "double low" state of low profit margins and capacity utilization, necessitating capacity clearance[2] Key Areas of Focus - Photovoltaics: Trade barriers and subsidy reductions have led to overcapacity and price declines; restructuring and demand-side policies are crucial for stabilizing prices[3] - Automotive Lithium: Structural contradictions between fuel and new energy vehicles have intensified, requiring capacity reduction for fuel vehicles and market expansion for new energy vehicles[3] - Coal: High coal inventories suppress prices, but long-term contracts stabilize profits for major coal companies; structural optimization may benefit coking coal enterprises[3] - Steel: Equipment upgrades are driving demand, but the real estate market remains weak, keeping profit margins low; effective capacity reduction and demand-side policies are key for improvement[3] Asset Impact - Equity markets may see index recovery due to "anti-involution" policies, but sustainability depends on the effectiveness of demand-side policies[4] - Bond markets face short-term pressure from equity market rebounds, with medium-term risks from rising interest rates due to inflation[4] - Commodity markets show strong short-term sentiment; caution is advised for shorts, while longs should monitor long-term supply-demand improvements[4] Risk Factors - Unexpected changes in macroeconomic conditions or industrial policies pose risks to the effectiveness of the "anti-involution" measures[5]