Nanhua Futures(SH:603093) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-07-21 12:49Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Nanhua Futures Asphalt Risk Management Daily Report [1] - Date: July 21, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Ling Chuanhui (Investment Consulting License No.: Z0019531) [1] - Investment Consulting Business Qualification: CSRC License [2011] No. 1290 [1] Group 2: Price and Volatility - The predicted monthly price range of the asphalt main contract is 3400 - 3750 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 22.30% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 39.16% [2] Group 3: Risk Management Strategies Inventory Management - For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, they can short sell the bu2509 asphalt futures to lock in profits and cover production costs, with a selling ratio of 25% and an entry range of 3650 - 3750 yuan/ton [2] Procurement Management - For enterprises with low regular procurement inventory and aiming to purchase based on orders, they can buy the bu2509 asphalt futures to lock in procurement costs in advance, with a buying ratio of 50% and an entry range of 3300 - 3400 yuan/ton [2] Group 4: Core Contradictions - The asphalt supply - demand situation remains stable. Factory inventories are decreasing, while social inventories are decreasing slowly. Speculative demand is weakening, and traders are actively reducing inventory. The basis in Shandong and East China has weakened due to increased production rates, and the crack spread remains high. Currently, supply growth exceeds expectations, and demand is in the off - season due to rainfall, causing the overall fundamentals to weaken month - on - month. However, due to the strong performance of crude oil on the cost side, the absolute price shows an oscillating trend, and the month - spread, basis, and crack spread have all weakened to some extent. In the long - term, demand will pick up as construction conditions improve in August, and the peak construction season arrives. The debt - resolution progress of local governments in 2025 is accelerating, and funds are easing. With the "14th Five - Year Plan" nearing completion, project numbers are guaranteed, and the peak season is still expected. In the short - term, the market sentiment has improved due to the expectation of eliminating backward production capacity [3] Group 5: Price and Basis Data Spot Prices - On July 21, 2025, the Shandong spot price was 3855 yuan/ton (up 35 yuan/day, 45 yuan/week), the Yangtze River Delta spot price was 3780 yuan/ton (unchanged), the North China spot price was 3750 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the South China spot price was 3590 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan/day, 20 yuan/week) [6] Basis - The Shandong spot 09 basis was 198 yuan/ton (up 33 yuan/day, 34 yuan/week), the Yangtze River Delta spot 09 basis was 123 yuan/ton (down 2 yuan/day, 11 yuan/week), the North China spot 09 basis was 93 yuan/ton (down 2 yuan/day, 11 yuan/week), and the South China spot 09 basis was - 67 yuan/ton (down 12 yuan/day, 31 yuan/week) [6][9] Crack Spread - The Shandong spot crack spread against Brent was 171.0588 yuan/barrel (up 6.0027 yuan/day, 6.6955 yuan/week), and the futures main contract crack spread against Brent was 136.7478 yuan/barrel (up 0.2843 yuan/day, 0.8038 yuan/week) [9] Group 6: Factors Affecting the Market Bullish Factors - Low pressure on asphalt factory inventories provides a basis for manufacturers to support prices; demand seasonal peak season; low production starts with expectations of catch - up construction in the South; strong atmosphere of eliminating backward production capacity [8] Bearish Factors - After the end of maintenance, production at some refineries resumes; short - term demand is dragged down by the plum - rain season in the South; slow reduction of social inventories and weakening basis [8]