Nanhua Futures(SH:603093) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-07-21 13:15Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The external market strengthened under the expectation of Sino-US talks, and the domestic market followed the positive spread logic. The rapeseed sector was relatively strong due to short - term supply - demand mismatch. There is still a gap in fourth - quarter vessel bookings, and the overall meal prices will reach an inflection point this year. From a valuation perspective, the downside space of US soybeans at the cost end is limited, and with the expectation of a resilient Brazilian premium, the far - month futures prices are expected to receive marginal upward driving forces [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for soybean meal is 2800 - 3300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 11.4% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 13.2%. The monthly price range forecast for rapeseed meal is 2450 - 2750, with a current volatility of 0.1637 and a 3 - year historical percentile of 0.25 [3]. 3.2 Hedging Strategies | Behavior Orientation | Spot Exposure | Strategy Recommendation | Hedging Tool | Buying/Selling Direction | Hedging Ratio (%) | Suggested Entry Interval | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Trader Inventory Management | Long | To prevent inventory losses, short soybean meal futures according to enterprise inventory to lock in profits and cover production costs | M2509 | Sell | 25% | 3300 - 3400 | | Feed Mill Procurement Management | Short | To prevent rising meal prices from increasing procurement costs, buy soybean meal futures at present to lock in procurement costs | M2509 | Buy | 50% | 2850 - 3000 | | Oil Mill Inventory Management | Long | To prevent losses from excessive imported inventory, short soybean meal futures according to enterprise situation to lock in profits and cover production costs | M2509 | Sell | 50% | 3100 - 3200 | [3] 3.3 Core Contradictions - The external market strengthened under the expectation of Sino - US talks, and the domestic market followed the positive spread logic. The rapeseed sector was relatively strong due to short - term supply - demand mismatch. There is a gap in fourth - quarter vessel bookings, and meal prices will reach an inflection point. The downside space of US soybeans at the cost end is limited, and far - month futures prices may rise [4]. 3.4 Bullish Factors No relevant content provided. 3.5 Bearish Factors - The supply pressure at the spot end is mainly reflected in the basis. The futures market lacks short - selling pressure due to the roll - over of hedging positions. - The arrivals in July, August, and September are 11.5 million tons, 11 million tons, and 10 million tons respectively, with a gap after December. - The rapeseed meal inventory is increasing slightly, the near - month futures warehouse receipt pressure is easing, and there are short - term supply rhythm issues. The market has rebounded. The market has repeatedly priced in the information of Sino - Canadian and Sino - Australian meetings, and attention should be paid to the recovery of rapeseed supply [6]. 3.6 Futures Prices | Futures Contract | Closing Price | Daily Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Soybean Meal 01 | 3087 | 9 | 0.29% | | Soybean Meal 05 | 2752 | 8 | 0.29% | | Soybean Meal 09 | 3069 | 13 | 0.43% | | Rapeseed Meal 01 | 2415 | 21 | 0.88% | | Rapeseed Meal 05 | 2366 | 14 | 0.6% | | Rapeseed Meal 09 | 2727 | 5 | 0.18% | [7] 3.7 CBOT and Exchange Rate - CBOT yellow soybeans are at 1035 with no change (0%). The offshore RMB exchange rate is 7.1785, down 0.0001 (0%) [10]. 3.8 Spreads - The spreads between different soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures contracts, as well as the spreads between spot and futures prices and basis are provided in the report [11]. 3.9 Import Costs and Crushing Profits | Import Item | Price (Yuan/ton) | Daily Change | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | US Gulf Soybean Import Cost (23%) | 4809.2202 | - 41.4821 | 0.0444 | | Brazilian Soybean Import Cost | 3956.71 | 21.56 | 62.69 | | US Gulf (3%) - US Gulf (23%) Cost Difference | - 781.987 | - 5.4181 | - 21.3411 | | US Gulf Soybean Import Profit (23%) | - 903.0352 | - 41.4821 | - 78.2827 | | Brazilian Soybean Import Profit | 153.7991 | 0.0531 | 0.1373 | | Canadian Rapeseed Import Futures Profit | 301 | - 4 | - 3 | | Canadian Rapeseed Import Spot Profit | 292 | - 8 | 0 | [12]