Nanhua Futures(SH:603093) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-07-21 14:05Report Information - Report Name: Nanhua Futures Tin Risk Management Daily Report - Date: July 21, 2025 - Research Team: Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Research Team [1] Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Tin prices rose passively, and there is still some pressure above [3]. Key Points by Content 1. Tin Price Volatility and Risk Management - Price Volatility: The latest closing price of tin is 267,250 yuan/ton, the monthly price range forecast is 245,000 - 263,000 yuan/ton, the current volatility is 14.08%, and the current volatility historical percentile is 25.1% [2]. - Risk Management Suggestions: - Inventory Management: For high - level finished product inventory and fear of price decline, sell 75% of Shanghai Tin main futures contracts at around 275,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of SN2509C275000 call options when volatility is appropriate [2]. - Raw Material Management: For low - level raw material inventory and fear of price increase, buy 50% of Shanghai Tin main futures contracts at around 230,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of SN2509P245000 put options when volatility is appropriate [2]. 2. Factors Affecting Tin Prices - Positive Factors: Sino - US tariff policy relaxation, semiconductor sector in expansion cycle, Myanmar's resumption of production falling short of expectations, and anti - involution benefiting the entire non - ferrous metal sector [4]. - Negative Factors: Tariff policy fluctuation, inflow of Myanmar tin ore into China, and the semiconductor sector's expansion slowing down and moving towards a contraction cycle [5][6]. 3. Nanhua's View on Tin Prices - Tin prices are still in an overall oscillating trend recently. The macro - level US tariff policy change has limited impact on tin. In the short term, considering the imminent outflow of Myanmar ore and no signs of further improvement in downstream demand, the view that the upward pressure on tin prices is greater than the downward support still holds [7]. 4. Tin Futures and Spot Data - Futures Data (Daily): - Shanghai Tin main contract: latest price 267,250 yuan/ton, daily increase of 2,710 yuan, daily increase rate of 1.02% [2][8]. - Shanghai Tin continuous - one contract: latest price 267,470 yuan/ton, daily increase of 2,840 yuan, daily increase rate of 1.07% [8]. - Shanghai Tin continuous - three contract: latest price 267,250 yuan/ton, daily increase of 2,900 yuan, daily increase rate of 1.1% [9]. - LME Tin 3M: latest price 33,355 US dollars/ton, daily increase of 285 US dollars, daily increase rate of 0.86% [9]. - Shanghai - London ratio: latest ratio 7.96, daily increase of 0.04, daily increase rate of 0.51% [9]. - Spot Data (Weekly): - Shanghai Non - ferrous tin ingot: latest price 267,200 yuan/ton, weekly increase of 700 yuan, weekly increase rate of 0.26% [16]. - 1 tin premium: latest price 500 yuan/ton, weekly decrease of 100 yuan, weekly decrease rate of - 16.67% [16]. - 40% tin concentrate: latest price 253,500 yuan/ton, weekly decrease of 1,200 yuan, weekly decrease rate of - 0.47% [17]. - 60% tin concentrate: latest price 257,500 yuan/ton, weekly decrease of 1,200 yuan, weekly decrease rate of - 0.46% [17]. - Solder bar (60A) Shanghai Non - ferrous: latest price 172,250 yuan/ton, weekly decrease of 1,000 yuan, weekly decrease rate of - 0.58% [17]. - Solder bar (63A) Shanghai Non - ferrous: latest price 179,750 yuan/ton, weekly decrease of 1,000 yuan, weekly decrease rate of - 0.55% [17]. - Lead - free solder: latest price 271,250 yuan/ton, weekly decrease of 1,500 yuan, weekly decrease rate of - 0.55% [17]. 5. Tin Import and Processing Data - Import Profit and Loss and Processing Fees (Daily): - Tin import profit and loss: latest price - 16,228.79 yuan/ton, daily decrease of 684.78 yuan, daily increase rate of 4.41% [19]. - 40% tin ore processing fee: latest price 12,200 yuan/ton, no change [19]. - 60% tin ore processing fee: latest price 10,550 yuan/ton, no change [19]. 6. Tin Inventory Data - Shanghai Futures Exchange Inventory (Daily): - Total tin warehouse receipts: latest quantity 6,817 tons, daily increase of 104 tons, daily increase rate of 1.55% [23]. - Tin warehouse receipts in Guangdong: latest quantity 4,524 tons, daily increase of 122 tons, daily increase rate of 2.77% [23]. - Tin warehouse receipts in Shanghai: latest quantity 1,412 tons, daily decrease of 8 tons, daily decrease rate of - 0.56% [23]. - LME Tin Inventory: latest quantity 1,935 tons, daily decrease of 100 tons, daily decrease rate of - 4.91% [23].