Nanhua Futures(SH:603093) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-07-22 04:51Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View - The medium - to long - term outlook for precious metals is bullish. For short - term, the resistance levels of London gold are raised to 3400, 3450, and 3500, with support at 3375; London silver has support around 38.4 and resistance in the 39 area. The operation strategy is to buy on dips [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - On Monday, the precious metals market rose strongly. The decline of the US dollar index and the 10Y US Treasury yield favored the valuation of precious metals. The surrounding US stocks, Bitcoin, and crude oil fluctuated, while the South China Non - ferrous Metals rose. COMEX gold 2508 contract closed at $3410.3 per ounce, up 1.55%; US silver 2509 contract closed at $39.24 per ounce, up 2.02%. SHFE gold 2510 main contract was at 781.7 yuan per gram, up 0.82%; SHFE silver 2510 contract was at 9271 yuan per kilogram, up 0.93%. The approaching August 1 tariff deadline and slow US trade negotiation progress increased market risk - aversion sentiment in late July, which was beneficial to precious metals. The government's continuous intervention in the Fed may lead to a shift from hawkish to dovish under the Fed's independence principle, also favoring precious metals. Additionally, Japan's ruling coalition suffered a historic defeat in the Senate election [1]. 2. Interest Rate Cut Expectation and Fund Holdings - Interest rate cut expectations have slightly increased. According to CME "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 97.4%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 2.6%. In September, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 41.4%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 57.2%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 1.5%. In October, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 19.2%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 48.7%, the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 31.2%, and the probability of a cumulative 75 - basis - point cut is 0.8%. In terms of long - term funds, the SPDR Gold ETF holdings increased by 3.43 tons to 947.06 tons daily; the iShares Silver ETF holdings increased by 347.58 tons to 15005.79 tons daily, reaching the highest level since February 2023. In terms of inventory, SHFE silver inventory decreased by 6.6 tons to 1204.5 tons daily; as of the week ending July 11, SGX silver inventory increased by 7.3 tons to 1327.2 tons weekly [2]. 3. This Week's Focus - This week's data is generally light. Pay attention to the preliminary values of the US July S&P manufacturing and services PMIs and the weekly initial jobless claims on Thursday evening. In terms of events, at 20:30 on Tuesday, Fed Chairman Powell will give a welcome speech at a regulatory meeting. At 01:00 on Wednesday, Fed Governor Bowman will host a fireside chat session at a large - bank capital framework meeting hosted by the Fed. At 20:15 on Thursday, the European Central Bank will announce its interest rate decision, followed by a monetary policy press conference by ECB President Lagarde. During the week, US President Trump will give a speech at an event named "Winning the AI Race" [3]. 4. Precious Metals Spot and Futures Prices - SHFE gold main - continuous contract is at 781.7 yuan per gram, up 4.68 yuan or 0.6%; SGX gold TD is at 777 yuan per gram, up 3.63 yuan or 0.47%; CME gold main contract is at $3410.3 per ounce, up $54.8 or 1.63%. SHFE silver main - continuous contract is at 9271 yuan per kilogram, down 2 yuan or - 0.02%; SGX silver TD is at 9226 yuan per kilogram, up 15 yuan or 0.16%; CME silver main contract is at $39.24 per ounce, up $0.815 or 2.12%. SHFE - TD gold is at 4.7 yuan per gram, up 1.05 yuan or 28.77%; SHFE - TD silver is at 45 yuan per kilogram, down 17 yuan or 44.19%. The CME gold - silver ratio is 86.9088, down 0.4172 or - 0.48% [5]. 5. Inventory and Holdings - SHFE gold inventory is 28857 kilograms, unchanged; CME gold inventory is 1156.8058 tons, unchanged; SHFE gold holdings are 211239 lots, up 8952 lots or 4.43%; SPDR gold holdings are 947.06 tons, up 3.43 tons or 0.36%. SHFE silver inventory is 1204.466 tons, down 6.61 tons or - 0.55%; CME silver inventory is 15478.5188 tons, up 12.4918 tons or 0.08%; SGX silver inventory is 1327.23 tons, up 7.335 tons or 0.56%; SHFE silver holdings are 467534 lots, down 12142 lots or - 2.53%; SLV silver holdings are 15005.786237 tons, up 347.575 tons or 2.37% [13]. 6. Stock, Bond, and Commodity Overview - The US dollar index is 97.8575, down 0.6137 or - 0.62%; the US dollar against the Chinese yuan is 7.1714, down 0.0071 or - 0.1%; the Dow Jones Industrial Average is 44342.19 points, down 142.3 points or - 0.32%; WTI crude oil spot is $67.34 per barrel, down $0.2 or - 0.3%; LmeS copper 03 is $9794.5 per ton, up $116.5 or 1.2%; the 10Y US Treasury yield is 4.44%, down 0.03 or - 0.67%; the 10Y US real interest rate is 1.98, down 0.05 or - 2.46%; the 10 - 2Y US Treasury yield spread is 0.56, unchanged [18][20].