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建投能源(000600):火电基石稳固,盈利仍有较大提升空间

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, 建投能源 (000600.SZ) [4] Core Views - The company has a solid foundation in thermal power generation, with significant potential for profit improvement due to declining coal prices and ongoing capacity expansion [6][41] - The company is actively transitioning towards renewable energy, with substantial growth in solar power capacity and ongoing projects aimed at reducing carbon emissions [46][52] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from 23.52 billion yuan in 2024 to 23.50 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of 11.22% from 2020 to 2024 [2][15] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase significantly, reaching 1.33 billion yuan in 2025 and 1.46 billion yuan in 2026, reflecting a growth rate of 149.62% and 10.14% respectively [2][6] - The gross profit margin is forecasted to improve from 15.35% in 2024 to 24.45% in 2027, indicating enhanced profitability [2][21] Business Overview - The company is a key player in the thermal power sector in Hebei, holding a 25% market share in installed capacity [6][8] - The revenue structure is heavily reliant on thermal power, which accounts for over 90% of total revenue [13][15] - The company has a total installed thermal power capacity of 11.77 GW, with plans to increase this to 16.02 GW by 2026 through ongoing projects [6][41] Growth Potential - The company is expected to benefit from a significant increase in installed capacity, with ongoing projects projected to add 3.90 GW of thermal power capacity by 2026 [41][46] - The renewable energy segment is also expanding, with a current solar capacity of 457,100 kW and additional projects in the pipeline [46][52] Investment Recommendations - The report forecasts net profits of 1.33 billion yuan, 1.46 billion yuan, and 1.58 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 10.6x, 9.6x, and 8.9x [6][27]