Highton Development(SH:603162) Southwest Securities·2025-07-22 11:22Investment Rating - The report does not specify a clear investment rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company has experienced pressure on freight rates leading to a decline in profits, with a focus on waiting for seasonal demand to release elasticity [1] - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 1.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.7%, despite a significant drop in the dry bulk shipping market [8] - The company is expanding its fleet and enhancing its profitability, with a total of 12 new vessels added, ranking among the top in domestic dry bulk transportation capacity [8][9] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 2024A: 3,658.77 million yuan, 2025E: 3,668.59 million yuan, 2026E: 4,262.58 million yuan, 2027E: 4,857.25 million yuan, with growth rates of 114.55%, 0.27%, 16.19%, and 13.95% respectively [2] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 549.02 million yuan in 2024A, dropping to 263.66 million yuan in 2025E, then recovering to 515.07 million yuan in 2026E and 737.20 million yuan in 2027E [2] - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 0.59 yuan in 2024A, 0.28 yuan in 2025E, 0.56 yuan in 2026E, and 0.80 yuan in 2027E [2] Market Performance - The average daily TCE for the company's foreign trade self-operated super flexible vessels was 12,258 USD, outperforming the market by approximately 33% [8] - The domestic coastal dry bulk transportation market is showing signs of recovery, with a year-on-year increase of 3.9% in cargo volume for the company's coastal charter business [8] Profitability Outlook - The company is expected to see net profits of 2.6 billion yuan, 5.2 billion yuan, and 7.4 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 30x, 15x, and 11x [9][10]