TBEA(SH:600089) Guoxin Securities·2025-07-23 05:32Investment Rating - The investment rating for TBEA Co., Ltd. (600089.SH) is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][8]. Core Views - The recent notice from the National Energy Administration regarding coal mine production capacity checks is seen as a measure to alleviate supply-demand imbalances in the coal industry, which is expected to promote profit recovery for coal companies. TBEA's coal business is anticipated to benefit from the stabilization of coal prices in Xinjiang [2][8]. - The profit forecasts for TBEA for 2025-2027 have been revised upwards to 6.37 billion, 8.10 billion, and 9.79 billion yuan respectively, reflecting year-on-year increases of 54.0%, 27.3%, and 20.8%. The current stock price corresponds to P/E ratios of 11.8, 9.3, and 7.7 for the respective years [2][8]. Summary by Sections Recent Developments - The National Energy Administration issued a notice to conduct coal mine production checks to ensure stable coal supply and orderly production. The checks will cover eight provinces, including Shanxi and Inner Mongolia, focusing on whether coal production exceeds announced capacities [2][3]. Financial Performance - TBEA's coal business in Xinjiang is part of a significant coal base, with a certified production capacity of 74 million tons per year. The revenue from the coal business for 2024 is projected to be 19.26 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.7%, with a gross margin of 32.4%, down 14 percentage points due to a decrease in coal sales prices [7][8]. Profit Forecasts - The updated profit forecasts for TBEA are as follows: - 2025: 6.37 billion yuan - 2026: 8.10 billion yuan - 2027: 9.79 billion yuan - These figures represent significant year-on-year growth rates of 54.0%, 27.3%, and 20.8% respectively [2][8]. Market Valuation - The current stock price corresponds to P/E ratios of 11.8 for 2025, 9.3 for 2026, and 7.7 for 2027, indicating a favorable valuation compared to expected earnings growth [2][8].