JAC(SH:600418) Guoxin Securities·2025-07-23 06:55Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the automotive industry [1][4][5]. Core Views - The automotive industry is experiencing a significant transformation driven by electrification, intelligence, and connectivity, with a focus on new energy vehicles (NEVs) and smart technologies [12][13]. - The report highlights the strong sales growth in June 2025, with total vehicle sales reaching 2.904 million units, a year-on-year increase of 13.8% [1][21]. - The report emphasizes the potential of domestic brands and the opportunities in incremental components due to the rise of electric and intelligent vehicles [12][24]. Monthly Sales Data - In June 2025, total vehicle sales were 2.904 million units, with NEV sales reaching 1.329 million units, a year-on-year increase of 26.7% [1][21]. - Retail sales of passenger cars in June 2025 were 2.084 million units, showing a year-on-year growth of 18.1% [1][21]. Weekly Data - For the week of July 7-13, 2025, domestic passenger car registrations were 370,200 units, a year-on-year increase of 3.7% [2]. - The automotive sector index increased by 3.22% during the week of July 14-18, 2025, outperforming major indices [2][5]. Key Company Earnings Forecasts and Investment Ratings - Leap Motor (9863.HK) is rated "Outperform" with an estimated EPS of -0.05 for 2025 [4]. - Geely (0175.HK) is rated "Outperform" with an estimated EPS of 1.36 for 2025 [4]. - JAC Motors (600418.SH) is rated "Outperform" with an estimated EPS of 0.11 for 2025 [4]. - Horizon Robotics (9660.HK) is rated "Outperform" with an estimated EPS of -0.14 for 2025 [4]. - Top Group (601689.SH) is rated "Outperform" with an estimated EPS of 2.04 for 2025 [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on domestic brands and the opportunities in incremental components, particularly in the context of electrification and intelligence [12][24]. - Specific recommendations include: - Vehicle manufacturers: Leap Motor, Geely, JAC Motors [12][24]. - Intelligent components: Kobot, Huayang Group, Junsheng Electronics [12][24]. - Robotics: Top Group, Sanhua Intelligent Control, Shuanghuan Transmission [12][24]. - Domestic alternatives: Xingyu, Fuyao Glass, Jifeng [12][24].