Nanhua Futures(SH:603093) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-07-23 11:44Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Recently, the macro - atmosphere has been warm, the double - coke futures have strongly rebounded, speculative demand has entered the market to lock in goods, spot liquidity has tightened, coal enterprises have raised prices, and coking profits are under pressure. The second round of price increases by coking plants at the beginning of the week is likely to be implemented. This week, iron ore has strongly rebounded, squeezing immediate steel profits, but steel profits calculated based on raw material inventories are still expanding. Steel mills have little willingness to cut pig iron production, and the procurement demand for coal and coke is strong. Speculative and rigid demand support the double - coke futures and spot prices. The market's expectation of Supply - side 2.0 is intensifying, and the short - term futures may continue to fluctuate strongly. In the medium - to - long term, the sharp rise in furnace materials threatens steel mills' profitability, high pig iron production may not be sustainable. Steel billet export orders have declined, and inventory accumulation is accelerating. Operationally, it is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading and not to chase high prices. For arbitrage, pay attention to the 9 - 1 reverse spread opportunity of coal and coke [4]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Double - Coke Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for coking coal is 1030 - 1300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 32.68% and a historical percentile of 63.87%. For coke, the monthly price range forecast is 1350 - 1800, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 25.37% and a historical percentile of 49.13% [3]. Double - Coke Risk Management Strategy Suggestions - For the arbitrage scenario of inter - month spread, with no spot exposure, it is recommended to short the coking coal 9 - 1 spread (jm2509&jm2601), sell at the suggested entry range of (- 40, - 30) [3]. Black Warehouse Receipt Daily Report - On July 23, 2025, compared with July 22, 2025, the warehouse receipt quantity of rebar remained unchanged at 86,534 tons; hot - rolled coil decreased by 598 tons to 58,951 tons; iron ore decreased by 200 lots to 3,100 lots; coking coal decreased by 500 lots to 0 lots; coke remained unchanged at 760 lots; ferrosilicon remained unchanged at 22,150 sheets; and ferromanganese decreased by 523 sheets to 77,972 sheets [3]. 利多解读 (Positive Factors) - Supply - side 2.0 has disturbed market sentiment, and the market has a good bullish atmosphere. Downstream steel mills have good profits, with a profit per ton of over 100, and it is difficult to reduce pig iron production in the off - season. There is speculation about the Politburo meeting at the end of the month. Coking plants are suffering serious losses and there is still an expectation of price increases [5]. 利空解读 (Negative Factors) - Coal mines in Shanxi have resumed production beyond expectations. The military parade on September 3 may affect steel production around Hebei. The shipment of imported coal has increased, and the subsequent port - arrival pressure is increasing [6]. Coal and Coke Futures and Spot Price Data - A large amount of data on coal and coke futures and spot prices, including basis, cost, price differences between different contracts, and various profit data, are provided. For example, on July 23, 2025, the coking coal warehouse receipt cost (Tangshan Mongolian No. 5) was 1008 yuan/ton, and the main - contract basis was - 128.0 yuan/ton; the immediate coking profit was - 19 yuan/ton [6][7][8]