Zhongtai Securities(SH:600918) ZHONGTAI SECURITIES·2025-07-23 15:34Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating [1][2][3] Core View of the Report - The report is optimistic about the performance of fixed - income + products throughout the year, especially considering that convertible bonds fit the current market style. The median returns of first - tier and second - tier bond funds are similar this year, but first - tier bond funds have smaller drawdowns, making them more attractive to some "smart money" [8][37] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Pure Bond as the Foundation: How to Achieve Refined Management? - Trading Logic of Pure Bond Part: The core position of Juli's pure bond part focuses on quasi - financial bonds, and the flexible position pays attention to local bond trading strategies. Hengli focuses more on local bond allocation. Local bond investment is complex, and its trading opportunities may come from curve convex points and primary market subscription spreads. The allocation of local bonds is adjusted based on the spread between local bonds and national bonds. When the spread is below the historical median (e.g., below 30%), the position is reduced, and when the spread widens, it is re - increased [13][14] - View on New Credit Bond Products and Strategies: Super - long - term credit bonds are more suitable for institutional investors with stable liability ends such as special accounts or insurance, rather than public funds. The current market allocation of super - long - term credit bonds is crowded, and the interest rate trend is in a sideways shock. The proportion of super - long - term credit bonds in the portfolio is generally controlled at about 5%, and high - turnover and liquid varieties are selected [20] - Obtaining Excess Returns through Variety Rotation Strategy: The dumbbell strategy is adopted, with long - term positions mainly in local bonds and short - term positions moderately increasing assets priced by NCDs according to market opportunities. The proportion of Tier 2 capital bonds is also controlled at a low level. In the second quarter, short - end assets were adjusted structurally to obtain excess returns [20] - Key Factors for Interest Rate Breakthrough or Reversal: The report is optimistic about the third - quarter (Q3) market, believing it is a typical pattern of strong stocks and bonds. There are no obvious negative factors in Q3, and the stock market's strong rebound benefits from loose liquidity, so the positions of convertible bonds in the portfolio are not significantly reduced [20] 2. Enhancement as the Blade: How to Achieve Stable Profit Accumulation in the "+" Part? - Configuration Ideas and Framework of Juli Product: Juli aims for absolute returns, with a target of maintaining the median drawdown level in the long term and a relatively high performance ranking. The pure bond duration of the product is controlled at about 3 - 4 years, with insurance perpetual bonds as the bottom - position variety and about 30% of commercial bank financial bonds for liquidity management. The convertible bond part is mainly configured with bank and breeding sector targets, and the remaining positions are allocated to environmental protection, state - owned enterprise reform themes, and the pan - technology field [24] - Convertible Bond Individual Bond Strategy: The report prefers a "steady and long - term" strategy, holding relatively concentrated convertible bond targets. This is because of limited human and research resources, and over - dispersion makes it difficult to conduct in - depth research and respond quickly to credit risk events [24] - Stop - Loss and Take - Profit Strategies and Positions of Convertible Bonds: Clear stop - loss and take - profit lines are set, with a 10% stop - loss amplitude generally being a reasonable choice. The take - profit is adjusted flexibly according to specific convertible bond targets. Positions are adjusted dynamically based on the market environment [29] - Configuration Strategy in the Case of Limited Target Pools: The most stable strategy is the double - low enhancement strategy. The industry rotation strategy in the convertible bond market has limited effects. The product adheres to the goal of absolute returns, controls drawdowns, and relies on research capabilities and target selection [36] - Stock Market Allocation Opportunities: This year, there have been theme - driven market trends in the equity market, such as AI, innovative drugs, and new consumption. The overall market allocation strategy may still be a dumbbell - shaped strategy. In the second half of the year, the equity market may be further promoted by industrial trends, with strong - performing themes such as AI, solid - state batteries, and semiconductors being key allocation directions, and the dividend sector being a preferred defensive allocation [37]