Report Overview - Report Name: Nanhua Futures Tin Risk Management Daily Report - Date: July 24, 2025 - Research Team: Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Research Team [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Tin price increase on Monday was due to the impact of anti - involution on the entire non - ferrous sector, but the fundamental situation of tin itself remained unchanged. In the short term, considering the upcoming outflow of Burmese tin ore and the lack of signs of improvement in downstream demand, the view that the upward pressure on tin prices is greater than the downward support still holds [3] Summary by Category Price and Volatility - The latest closing price of tin is 268,540 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 245,000 - 263,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 14.36%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 26.1% [2] Risk Management Suggestions Inventory Management - For high finished - product inventory and fear of price decline, with a long spot exposure, it is recommended to short the main Shanghai tin futures contract (75% hedging ratio, around 275,000 yuan/ton) and sell call options (25% hedging ratio, when volatility is appropriate) [2] Raw Material Management - For low raw - material inventory and fear of price increase, with a short spot exposure, it is recommended to long the main Shanghai tin futures contract (50% hedging ratio, around 230,000 yuan/ton) and sell put options (25% hedging ratio, when volatility is appropriate) [2] Market Factors Bullish Factors - Sino - US tariff policy relaxation, the semiconductor sector still in the expansion cycle, Burmese复产 falling short of expectations, and anti - involution benefiting the entire non - ferrous metal sector [7] Bearish Factors - Tariff policy reversals, the start of Burmese tin ore flowing into China, and the semiconductor sector's expansion slowing down and moving towards a contraction cycle [5][7] Futures and Spot Data Futures Data (Daily) - The latest price of the main Shanghai tin futures contract is 268,540 yuan/ton, with no daily change. The LME tin 3M price is 34,750 US dollars/ton, up 830 US dollars or 2.45% [6] Spot Data (Weekly) - The latest price of Shanghai Non - ferrous tin ingots is 268,900 yuan/ton, up 5,300 yuan or 2.01%. The price of 40% tin concentrate is 256,900 yuan/ton, up 5,300 yuan or 2.11% [11] Import and Processing - The latest tin import loss is 16,361.68 yuan/ton, with a daily change of 569.93 yuan or - 3.37%. The 40% tin ore processing fee is 12,200 yuan/ton, with no daily change [16] Inventory Data Daily Inventory - The total Shanghai Futures Exchange tin warehouse receipt quantity is 6,807 tons, up 16 tons or 0.24%. The LME tin total inventory is 1,715 tons, down 170 tons or - 9.02% [20]
南华期货锡风险管理日报-20250724