APELOA(SZ:000739) Huachuang Securities·2025-07-24 05:47Investment Rating - The report gives a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its future growth potential [1][10]. Core Viewpoints - The company has established itself as a leading player in the domestic CDMO (Contract Development and Manufacturing Organization) sector, with strong global competitiveness in raw materials, CDMO, and formulation businesses. The report anticipates a new growth cycle driven by the explosive growth of the CDMO business and the recovery of the formulation and raw material sectors [6][8]. - The CDMO business is expected to enter a phase of rapid growth, supported by the rise of leading biotech companies in China and the company's established relationships with major pharmaceutical firms globally [28][30]. - The formulation business is projected to accelerate growth starting in 2026, with a strategy focused on multi-product development and enhanced R&D capabilities [9][22]. - The raw material business is expected to regain medium to long-term growth, particularly in antibiotics and veterinary drugs, as market conditions improve [23][24]. Financial Summary - The company’s total revenue is projected to be 12,022 million in 2024, with a year-on-year growth rate of 4.8%. However, a decline of 6.3% is expected in 2025, followed by a recovery in 2026 with a growth of 1.6% and a significant increase of 16.3% in 2027 [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 1,031 million in 2024, with a slight decline of 2.3% year-on-year, followed by a more substantial recovery in 2026 and 2027 with growth rates of 30.8% and 28.1%, respectively [2][10]. - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is expected to decrease from 18 in 2025 to 11 by 2027, indicating an attractive valuation as the company grows [2][10]. Business Segments CDMO Business - The CDMO segment is anticipated to experience explosive growth, driven by the commercialization of numerous API (Active Pharmaceutical Ingredient) projects in China and sustained contributions from overseas clients [6][28]. - In 2024, the CDMO revenue is expected to reach 18.84 billion, with a gross profit margin of 41% [24][26]. Formulation Business - The formulation business is set to enter a growth phase in 2026, with the company planning to approve over 15 new products annually starting from that year [9][22]. - The integration of raw materials and formulations is expected to enhance cost advantages and accelerate product approvals [9][22]. Raw Material Business - The raw material segment is projected to recover, particularly in antibiotics and veterinary drugs, as prices stabilize and market share increases [23][24]. - The company is expanding its product pipeline in chronic disease medications and leveraging its manufacturing capabilities to drive growth [23][24].