Zheshang Securities(SH:601878) ZHESHANG SECURITIES·2025-07-24 10:54Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The intensity of anti-involution policies may be the biggest source of expectation divergence. In the short term, the bond market may remain weak, and the window for going long on bonds in the third quarter may be postponed. In the long term, anti-involution may help shorten the time required for a moderate recovery of inflation, and profound changes may be gradually occurring beneath the seemingly calm economic fundamentals [1][2][3]. - Compared with supply-side reform, the current anti-involution has a broader scope and can be seen as an upgraded version. It faces more complex supply-demand contradictions, a more challenging macro environment, and involves a wider range of industries [1][10]. - The market has different views on the ultimate intensity of anti-involution. Some investors believe that relying solely on supply-side anti-involution may not achieve policy goals due to weak demand, but it is unwise to underestimate the determination of the current anti-involution policies [2][18][19]. Summary by Directory 1. Fixed-income Perspective on the "Anti-involution Trading" Market - The anti-involution policy has driven the simultaneous rise of the equity and commodity markets, suppressing bond market sentiment and creating a seesaw effect between stocks/commodities and bonds. Understanding this policy is crucial for predicting the future bond market [10]. - The anti-involution policy has evolved from a framework to specific measures, triggering a "anti-involution trading" market in the commodity market. Compared with supply-side reform, anti-involution faces more complex supply-demand contradictions, a more challenging macro environment, and involves a wider range of industries [10][11][14]. - There are differences in investors' views on the ultimate intensity of anti-involution. Some think that the policy may fall short of expectations due to weak demand, but the current stage may just be the beginning of the policy implementation, and its intensity may exceed expectations. Moreover, demand-side issues should be viewed dialectically, and there is a possibility of positive feedback in the economy [2][18][19]. - In the short term, the bond market is likely to be influenced by the performance of the equity and commodity markets. The equity market has a bullish atmosphere, and the upcoming Sino-US-Sweden negotiations may boost the market. The commodity market may have a trend reversal, similar to the "924 market" in the equity market in 2024. The short-term bond market may be weak, and the window for going long may be postponed [3][22][23]. - In the long term, the impact of anti-involution on inflation needs further observation, but it may shorten the time for a moderate inflation recovery, and underlying changes may be taking place in the economic fundamentals [3][24].