Cinda Securities(SH:601059) Xinda Securities·2025-07-24 13:41Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In June, the total bond custody scale increased by 129.68 billion yuan month-on-month, a significant decrease of 86.65 billion yuan compared to May, mainly affected by the large - scale net repayment of inter - bank certificates of deposit (NCDs). The net financing scale of treasury bonds also declined significantly, while the custody increments of policy - financial bonds, local government bonds, and credit bonds all increased slightly month - on - month [3][6]. - In June, factors such as the Sino - US economic and trade consultations reaching a framework of measures and the cease - fire between Israel and Iran boosted market risk appetite. However, supported by factors such as looser liquidity and the expectation of the central bank restarting bond purchases, the bond market sentiment warmed up. The short - end interest rates dropped significantly, and the long - end interest rates also declined slightly. The bond - buying demand of trading desks increased significantly. Non - bank institutions significantly increased their bond - buying scale, and insurance institutions turned to increase bond holdings. Banks still had the ability to increase bond holdings despite the record - high net repayment of NCDs, indicating a relief of banks' liability pressure and an increase in market allocation capacity [3][11]. - Affected by the significant increase in the balance of repurchase agreements, the bond market leverage ratio increased by 0.8 percentage points month - on - month to 107.8% in June. Although the increase was higher than the seasonal level, it was still at a relatively low level in the past three years. The significant increase in non - bank leverage ratio shows that the main risk in the market is whether institutional sentiment has turned overheated. However, since its absolute value is not high compared with the same period in previous years, the over - heating of sentiment may not have reached its peak [3][40]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. The net financing of inter - bank certificates of deposit declined significantly, and the bond custody increment in June shrank substantially - In June, the total bond custody scale increased by 129.68 billion yuan month - on - month, a significant decrease of 86.65 billion yuan compared to May, mainly due to the large - scale net repayment of NCDs and the significant decline in the net financing scale of treasury bonds. The custody increments of policy - financial bonds, local government bonds, and credit bonds all increased slightly month - on - month [3][6]. - Specifically, for interest - rate bonds, the custody increment of treasury bonds decreased by 20.85 billion yuan to 69.95 billion yuan; the custody increment of local government bonds increased by 12.91 billion yuan to 65.14 billion yuan; the custody increment of policy - financial bonds increased slightly by 5.12 billion yuan to 33.33 billion yuan. For credit bonds, the custody increment of medium - term notes increased by 17.27 billion yuan to 24.63 billion yuan, and the decline in the custody scale of short - term commercial paper narrowed by 1.49 billion yuan to 2.82 billion yuan. The custody scales of enterprise bonds and PPNs continued to decline. The custody volume of NCDs decreased by 71.99 billion yuan from an increase of 26.94 billion yuan last month, and the custody increment of commercial bank bonds decreased by 5.34 billion yuan to 20.84 billion yuan [6]. 2. In June, the willingness of allocation desks to increase holdings declined from a high level, while trading desks increased holdings of interest - rate bonds and reduced holdings of NCDs - General Funds: In June, the bond custody increment of general funds decreased by 20.77 billion yuan to 60.49 billion yuan. They turned to significantly reduce holdings of NCDs, with the reduction scale reaching a new high since December 2022, but increased holdings of treasury bonds and medium - term notes and turned to increase holdings of policy - financial bonds. Relative to the stock, they increased allocation of treasury bonds and policy - financial bonds but reduced allocation of NCDs [14]. - Securities Companies: The bond custody volume of securities companies increased by 10.23 billion yuan in June from a decrease of 12.61 billion yuan last month. They turned to increase holdings of various interest - rate bonds and medium - term notes but also increased the reduction of NCDs. Relative to the stock, they also increased allocation of bonds, mainly various interest - rate bonds and financial bonds on the Clearstream platform, but strengthened the reduction of NCDs [19]. - Insurance Companies: The bond custody volume of insurance companies increased by 4.68 billion yuan in June from a decrease of 120 million yuan last month. They turned to increase holdings of local government bonds and financial bonds on the Clearstream platform but slightly reduced holdings of treasury bonds. Relative to the stock, they increased allocation of local government bonds and significantly weakened the reduction of financial bonds on the Clearstream platform [23]. - Overseas Institutions: The bond custody volume of overseas institutions decreased by 11.61 billion yuan in June, with the decline increasing from 9.63 billion yuan last month. They turned to reduce holdings of treasury bonds and financial bonds on the Clearstream platform, and the reduction scale of policy - financial bonds increased, but the reduction scale of commercial bank bonds decreased. Relative to the stock, they maintained a high - level reduction of bonds [27]. - Other Institutions: The bond custody volume of other institutions (including the central bank) increased by 13.77 billion yuan in June from a decrease of 19.27 billion yuan last month. They turned to increase holdings of treasury bonds and reduced the reduction scale of local government bonds, but turned to reduce holdings of NCDs and financial bonds on the Clearstream platform. The increase in bond custody volume was mainly affected by the change of the central bank's outright repo from a net withdrawal of 20 billion yuan in May to a net injection of 20 billion yuan in June [31]. - Commercial Banks: The bond custody increment of commercial banks decreased significantly by 127.48 billion yuan to 40.32 billion yuan in June. The increase in holdings of treasury bonds decreased significantly, which may be affected by the change of the outright repo. They also reduced the increase in holdings of local government bonds and financial bonds on the Clearstream platform, turned to reduce holdings of policy - financial bonds and commercial bank bonds, but turned to increase holdings of medium - term notes. Relative to the stock, they reduced allocation of bonds, mainly various interest - rate bonds, commercial bank bonds, and financial bonds on the Clearstream platform, but increased allocation of NCDs [33]. - Credit Unions: The bond custody scale of credit unions decreased by 246 million yuan in June from an increase of 544 million yuan last month. They turned to reduce holdings of treasury bonds and NCDs and decreased the increase in holdings of policy - financial bonds. Relative to the stock, they reduced allocation of bonds, mainly various interest - rate bonds and NCDs [38]. 3. The bond market leverage ratio increased significantly in June but was still below the historical neutral level - Affected by the significant increase in the balance of repurchase agreements, the bond market leverage ratio increased by 0.8 percentage points month - on - month to 107.8% in June, with the increase higher than the seasonal level but still at a relatively low level in the past three years. The inter - bank average daily pledged repo trading volume increased to 7.77 trillion yuan, and the monthly average balance increased to 12.02 trillion yuan, reaching a new high this year [40]. - Commercial Banks: The leverage ratio of commercial banks increased by 0.4 percentage points to 103.6% in June, but was still significantly lower than the central level before April 2024 [40]. - Non - bank Institutions: The leverage ratio of non - bank institutions increased by 1.8 percentage points to 118.1% in June, with the month - on - month increase being the highest since 2023, but the absolute value was still not high in the past three years. Among them, the leverage ratio of securities companies increased significantly by 9.7 percentage points to 217.1%, reaching a relatively high level in the past three years; the leverage ratio of insurance and non - legal person products increased by 1.5 percentage points to 114.8%, but was still lower than the central level from June 2022 to December 2024 [40]. - General Funds: The repurchase balances of various institutions in general funds generally increased. The repurchase balance of money market funds continued to increase significantly, while the increases in the repurchase balances of non - money products of fund companies and insurance companies were relatively small. The repurchase balance of other products reached a historical high, and the repurchase balance of wealth management products also increased but was still near a historical low [40].