Nanhua Futures(SH:603093) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-07-24 13:52Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The external market has found support at key integer levels, but Sino-US talks and weather conditions can no longer drive the market to rebound. Future focus should be on China's purchases and weather conditions in US soybean-producing areas. The domestic soybean market has seen a significant decline due to the soybean meal feed reduction substitution plan. The far-month basis quote has weakened, and the near-month warehouse receipt pressure has returned, leading to a correction of the basis. The rapeseed market has followed the decline of soybean meal. In the short term, the contradictions have returned to reality, and the far-month supply-demand gap remains the key focus for layout [4]. - Positive factors include the expectation of Sino-US peace talks supporting the US soybean market, strong bullish sentiment in the far month due to weather speculation, and the Brazilian export premium supporting the far-month contract prices from the cost side [5]. - Negative factors include the supply pressure on the spot side mainly reflected in the basis, the need to focus on the departure of near-month long funds for the return of the futures and spot markets, the expected soybean arrivals showing a gap after December, and the impact of the recent Indian rapeseed issue on the upward momentum, along with the lack of elasticity in the market's repeated pricing of the potential Sino-Canadian and Sino-Australian talks [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for soybean meal is 2800 - 3300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 10.2% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 7.8%. For rapeseed meal, the price range is 2450 - 2750, with a current volatility of 0.1266 and a 3 - year historical percentile of 0.0718 [3]. 3.2 Hedging Strategy - For traders with high protein inventory worried about falling meal prices, they can short soybean meal futures (M2509) with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 3300 - 3400 to lock in profits and cover production costs [3]. - Feed mills with low regular inventory can buy soybean meal futures (M2509) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 2850 - 3000 to lock in procurement costs in advance [3]. - Oil mills worried about excessive imported soybeans and low soybean meal selling prices can short soybean meal futures (M2509) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 3100 - 3200 to lock in profits and cover production costs [3]. 3.3 Futures Price - The closing prices and daily changes of soybean meal futures contracts are as follows: M01 is 3059, down 57 (-1.83%); M05 is 2753, down 16 (-0.58%); M09 is 3025, down 70 (-2.26%). For rapeseed meal futures, RM01 is 2412, down 32 (-1.31%); RM05 is 2371, down 12 (-0.5%); RM09 is 2682, down 76 (-2.76%). CBOT yellow soybeans closed at 1022.5 with no change, and the offshore RMB closed at 7.1518, down 0.0174 (-0.24%) [7][9]. 3.4 Spread - The spreads and daily changes of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are as follows: M01 - 05 is 347, up 3; M05 - 09 is -326, unchanged; M09 - 01 is -21, down 3; RM01 - 05 is 61, up 1; RM05 - 09 is -375, down 16; RM09 - 01 is 314, up 15. The spot price of soybean meal in Rizhao is 2860, down 60, and the basis is -175, up 11. The spot price of rapeseed meal in Fujian is 2630, down 32, and the basis is -128, down 54. The spot spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 290, up 52, and the futures spread is 337, down 13 [10]. 3.5 Import Cost and Profit - The import cost of US Gulf soybeans (23%) is 4766.8495 yuan/ton, up 8.7627 yuan/ton from the previous day and down 0.004 yuan/ton from the previous week. The import cost of Brazilian soybeans is 3938.83 yuan/ton, up 12.66 yuan/ton from the previous day and up 21.8 yuan/ton from the previous week. The import profit of US Gulf soybeans (23%) is -843.5845 yuan/ton, up 8.7627 yuan/ton from the previous day and up 7.0881 yuan/ton from the previous week. The import profit of Brazilian soybeans is 173.8811 yuan/ton, up 40.4599 yuan/ton from the previous day and up 0.9124 yuan/ton from the previous week. The import profit of Canadian rapeseed in the futures market is 238 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan/ton from the previous day and down 147 yuan/ton from the previous week. The import profit of Canadian rapeseed in the spot market is 220 yuan/ton, down 64 yuan/ton from the previous day and down 154 yuan/ton from the previous week [11].