wanhua(SH:600309) Changjiang Securities·2025-07-24 15:19Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [8]. Core Views - The TDI market price is expected to rise significantly, reaching 16,250 RMB/ton by July 22, 2025, an increase of 5,969 RMB/ton (+58.1%) compared to April 24, 2025 [5][10]. - The company's capital expenditure is slowing down, which may lead to improved cash flow [5][10]. - The global TDI supply has contracted significantly, with major production facilities undergoing maintenance, leading to a strong price increase in the market [10]. - MDI prices are anticipated to rise due to a favorable industry environment, with the company planning to enhance its supply chain stability through strategic partnerships [10]. - The company is expanding its fine chemicals and new materials segments, achieving significant technological breakthroughs [10]. - A reduction in capital expenditure is expected to improve cash flow, with planned investments decreasing from 401.5 billion RMB in 2024 to 252.4 billion RMB in 2025 [10]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The TDI market is experiencing a notable price increase due to supply constraints from major manufacturers undergoing maintenance [10]. - The company is positioned to benefit from the anticipated demand and supply dynamics in the MDI market [10]. Financial Performance - The company’s projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 132.0 billion RMB, 173.9 billion RMB, and 190.5 billion RMB, respectively [10]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on enhancing its competitive edge in the petrochemical sector by integrating its supply chain and improving operational efficiency [10]. - The successful launch of new products in the fine chemicals and new materials sectors indicates strong growth potential [10].