SAIC MOTOR(SH:600104) Orient Securities·2025-07-25 01:05Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 23.75 CNY, based on a projected EPS of 0.95, 1.03, and 1.15 CNY for 2025-2027, respectively, and a PE valuation of 25 times [4][7]. Core Views - The report suggests that SAIC-GM will not hinder the company's profit growth, as the joint venture's sales are expected to stabilize and improve profitability after internal adjustments made in the previous year [11]. - The report highlights that GM China has achieved profitability for three consecutive quarters, indicating a gradual improvement in SAIC-GM's profitability [11]. - The report anticipates that new models will drive sales and profitability for SAIC-GM in the second half of the year, with a projected wholesale sales increase of 8.6% year-on-year in the first half of 2025 [11]. Financial Summary - The company's revenue is projected to decline by 15.4% in 2024, followed by a recovery with growth rates of 3.9%, 7.7%, and 8.0% in the subsequent years [6]. - Operating profit is expected to drop significantly by 60.0% in 2024 but rebound with a growth of 74.4% in 2025 [6]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to decrease by 88.2% in 2024, followed by a substantial increase of 560.3% in 2025 [6]. - The gross margin is expected to improve from 9.4% in 2024 to 11.1% by 2027 [6]. - The net profit margin is projected to recover from 0.3% in 2024 to 1.8% in 2027 [6].