SF Holding(SZ:002352) GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES·2025-07-25 08:28Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the express delivery industry [6]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the decline in express delivery prices has narrowed, indicating a potential for healthier competition in the industry. The focus is on leading e-commerce express companies, which are expected to see an increase in market share and valuation recovery opportunities [2][5]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - In June 2025, the total express delivery volume reached 16.87 billion pieces, marking a year-on-year increase of 15.8%. The revenue for the same month was 126.32 billion yuan, up 9.0% year-on-year. The average revenue per piece was 7.49 yuan, down 5.9% [5][8]. Company Performance - In June 2025, the business volume growth rates for major listed companies were as follows: SF Express +31.8%, YTO Express +19.3%, Yunda Express +7.4%, and Shentong Express +11.1%. For Q2 2025, the growth rates were +31.2%, +21.8%, +11.2%, and +16.0% respectively [5][30][31]. Market Concentration - The market concentration index (CR8) for the express delivery industry was 87.0 in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.7. The market shares for major companies in June 2025 were: SF Express 8.7%, YTO Express 15.6%, Yunda Express 12.9%, and Shentong Express 12.9% [5][27][31]. Price Trends - The report notes that the decline in express delivery prices has slowed down, with the industry experiencing a 9.0% year-on-year revenue growth in June 2025, while the average revenue per piece decreased by 5.8% [5][8]. Long-term Outlook - The report suggests that the express delivery industry is moving towards healthier competition, with leading companies expected to gain market share. The regulatory environment is anticipated to support this trend, ensuring a controlled level of price competition [41][52]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading e-commerce express companies for potential valuation recovery opportunities, particularly highlighting SF Express as a key investment target [55][56].