南华期货棉花棉纱周报：差有所修复，库存盾未变-20250725

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - New cotton listing, domestic cotton inventory shortage will support cotton prices, but high - cost old cotton may enter the market, downstream sales are poor, and there is a high - yield expectation for the far - month, so the upside of cotton prices is limited [4] - Pay attention to the implementation of domestic import quota policies, off - season cotton inventory reduction speed, and Sino - US trade agreement adjustments [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Domestic Market 3.1.1 Supply - As of July 17, the national new cotton sales rate was 95.8%, up 8.3 percentage points year - on - year and 8.3 percentage points higher than the average of the past four years [1] 3.1.2 Import - In June, China's cotton import volume was 30,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons from the previous month and 130,000 tons from the same period last year; cotton yarn import volume was 110,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous month and the same as the same period last year; cotton cloth import volume was 4,289.55 tons, a decrease of 3.44% from the previous month and 24.37% from the same period last year [1] 3.1.3 Demand - In June, domestic textile and clothing retail sales were 127.54 billion yuan, a 4.08% increase from the previous month and a 3.10% increase year - on - year; textile and clothing export volume was 27.315 billion US dollars, a 4.22% increase from the previous month and a 0.13% decrease year - on - year [1] 3.1.4 Inventory - As of July 15, the national cotton industrial and commercial inventory was 3.4245 million tons, a decrease of 308,300 tons from the end of June, including 2.5424 million tons of commercial inventory (a decrease of 287,400 tons from the end of June) and 882,100 tons of industrial inventory (a decrease of 20,900 tons from the end of June) [1] 3.2 International Market 3.2.1 US Supply - As of July 20, the cotton budding rate in the US was 71%, 8% behind the same period last year and 4% behind the five - year average; the boll - setting rate was 33%, 7% behind the same period last year and the same as the five - year average; the overall excellent rate of cotton plants was 57%, 3 percentage points higher than the previous month and 4 percentage points higher year - on - year [1] 3.2.2 US Demand - From July 11 - 17, the net signing of US 24/25 annual upland cotton was - 7,416 tons, a significant decrease compared with last week and the four - week average; the shipment of upland cotton was 41,912 tons, an 18% increase from the previous month and a 12% decrease compared with the four - week average; the net signing of Pima cotton was 1,247 tons, and the shipment was 1,134 tons; the signing of new - season upland cotton was 30,073 tons, and the signing of new - season Pima cotton was 3,946 tons [1] 3.2.3 Southeast Asian Supply - As of July 18, the new - season cotton sown area in India was 9.86 million hectares, a decrease of about 3.4% year - on - year [1] 3.2.4 Southeast Asian Demand - In June, Vietnam's textile and clothing export volume was 3.597 billion US dollars, a 9.45% increase from the previous month and a 13.86% increase year - on - year; Bangladesh's clothing export volume was 2.788 billion US dollars, a 28.87% decrease from the previous month and a 6.31% decrease year - on - year; India's clothing export volume was 1.31 billion US dollars, a 13.30% decrease from the previous month and a 1.23% increase year - on - year; Pakistan's textile and clothing export volume was 1.522 billion US dollars, a 0.60% decrease from the previous month and a 7.59% increase year - on - year [1] 3.3 Market Trends and Expectations - Last week, domestic cotton prices were strong, and the 9 - 1 spread strengthened significantly. This week, some long - positions shifted, the near - month contract fluctuated narrowly, and the far - month contract was strong, with the spread quickly repaired [4] - Xinjiang's new cotton is in the peak boll - forming period. Although pests are more severe than last year, they are generally controllable, and the overall development progress is fast with good growth. The temperature in Xinjiang may drop next week, and the new - season output is still expected to be optimistic [4] - Mainland spinning mills have reduced their overall load due to squeezed spinning profits, but Xinjiang spinning mills have a high operating rate, supporting the rigid consumption of cotton. Recently, the downstream finished product inventory has decreased slightly, but there is still some pressure [4] - As of the week of July 19, Brazil's cotton picking progress was about 16.7%, with faster progress in Bahia. The Brazilian industry association expects the new - season cotton output to increase by 7% year - on - year to 3.96 million tons [4] - India's overall cotton planting progress is behind schedule, and the monsoon rainfall in central and north - western India is significantly higher than the historical average. Attention should be paid to possible pest impacts under heavy rainfall [4]