CNRE(SH:600111) Orient Securities·2025-07-27 01:45Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the non-ferrous and steel industry [5] Core Viewpoints - The report argues that the value reassessment of the strategic metals sector has just begun, contrary to some investors' belief that the recent rapid price increases indicate an impending peak [8][14] - It highlights three dimensions supporting this view: policy measures against strategic mineral smuggling, a tight supply-demand balance driving product prices up, and an increase in risk appetite due to political policy risk premiums [8][14][17] Summary by Sections Strategic Metals - Some investors believe the recent surge in strategic metals prices is unsustainable and may soon peak [8][13] - The report counters this by stating that the value reassessment of strategic metals is just beginning, driven by macroeconomic inflation, tight supply-demand dynamics, and political risk premiums [14][17] - Policy measures to combat strategic mineral smuggling are expected to be reinforced, particularly for rare earths and other strategic metals [15] - The supply-demand balance remains tight, with increasing demand from sectors like new energy vehicles and offshore wind power, leading to rising prices for rare earths [16] - Political policy risk premiums are expected to rise, enhancing the attractiveness of the strategic metals sector [17] Steel Industry - Steel prices are anticipated to continue rising due to production cut expectations [18] - Steel demand and production have decreased, but a dynamic balance in supply and demand is expected [18][25] - Inventory levels are showing differentiation among various steel products, with total inventory likely to decline further [25] - Cost increases in raw materials are pushing steel prices up, with profits for steel mills expected to recover [28] - The overall steel price index has seen a slight increase, with specific products like hot-rolled steel showing notable price rises [35] New Energy Metals - Lithium production in June 2025 saw a significant year-on-year increase of 20.95%, indicating strong supply growth [40] - The demand for new energy vehicles remains robust, with production and sales in June 2025 showing substantial growth [44] - Prices for lithium and cobalt have generally risen, while nickel prices have seen a decline [49][50] Industrial Metals - Global refined copper production has increased, with supply slightly better than expected [57] - The demand outlook is improving, with manufacturing activity expected to continue recovering [69]