Tesla(US:TSLA) Chengtong Securities·2025-07-27 06:51Group 1: Macro and Market Overview - The A-share market showed positive performance in July, with the Shanghai Composite Index, CSI 300, and ChiNext Index rising by 4.3%, 4.9%, and 8.7% respectively [1][10] - The bond market weakened, with an overall decline of 0.6%, and government bond yields increased, with 1-year, 5-year, and 10-year yields rising by 4.3bp, 10.3bp, and 8.3bp respectively [1][10] - The external markets also performed well, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 5.5% and major US indices, including the Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500, increasing by 1.8%, 3.6%, and 3.0% respectively [1][10] Group 2: A-share Market Analysis - The A-share market is approaching a critical trading zone, with the Shanghai Index nearing the October 2024 trading volume of 3 trillion, indicating potential resistance to breaking through this level [2][22] - External risks are increasing, particularly regarding US-China tariff negotiations and potential sanctions from the EU against Chinese financial institutions [2][22] Group 3: Sector Focus and Investment Strategy - Investment strategies should focus on technology and anti-involution sectors, with particular attention to humanoid robotics and the broader AI industry [3][23] - The anti-involution strategy is expected to drive demand policies, suggesting investments in undervalued chemical blue-chip stocks, vitamins, phosphorus chemicals, TDI, and coking coal sectors [3][25] - The technology sector is highlighted for potential growth, especially with upcoming IPOs in humanoid robotics and increased capital expenditure in AI services [3][24] Group 4: Bond Market Strategy - The upcoming Central Political Bureau meeting is expected to address the current economic situation and may reinforce anti-involution policies, which could lead to rising inflation expectations and government bond yields [3][27] - The 10-year government bond yield has been on an upward trend, reaching approximately 1.73% as of late July, with expectations of continued increases [3][27][30]