Milkground(SH:600882) CAITONG SECURITIES·2025-07-27 08:08Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company [2]. Core Viewpoints - The cheese industry is experiencing an improvement in competitive landscape, with a significant growth potential compared to overseas markets. The market size is expected to reach 300-400 billion yuan in the medium term [8]. - The company is focusing on diversifying its product offerings and breaking into new consumer segments, particularly in the C-end market, while leveraging its strong R&D capabilities [8]. - The collaboration with Mengniu is expected to enhance the B-end business growth, capitalizing on the rising demand in Western fast food and ready-to-drink markets [8]. - The company aims to achieve a revenue target of 53.7 billion yuan by 2025, with a net profit of 2.4 billion yuan, reflecting a significant growth trajectory [8]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The cheese industry is transitioning from a high-growth phase to a more mature stage, with a market size of 93.7 billion yuan in 2024, down 13.5% year-on-year [15][17]. - The competitive landscape is improving, with the CR5 of the cheese industry expected to rise to 63.7% in 2024, indicating a consolidation of market share among leading brands [17][19]. 2. C-end Market Strategy - The company is implementing a "Cheese+" strategy, focusing on small packaging and healthy cheese snacks, while exploring new consumption scenarios such as baking and breakfast [8][35]. - The C-end business is expected to diversify beyond children's cheese sticks, with a projected revenue growth of 7.8% for ready-to-eat nutrition products in 2024 [8]. 3. B-end Market Strategy - The company is actively expanding its B-end business, achieving breakthroughs in five major channels including Western cuisine and tea drinks, supported by Mengniu's resources [8][35]. - The integration of Mengniu's cheese business is anticipated to enhance product offerings and customer resources, driving collaborative growth in the B-end market [8]. 4. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are set at 53.7 billion yuan, 60.2 billion yuan, and 68.2 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 2.4 billion yuan, 3.5 billion yuan, and 4.6 billion yuan [7][8]. - The company expects to achieve a PE ratio of 61, 42, and 31 times for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, indicating a positive outlook on profitability [8].