Atour Lifestyle (US:ATAT) Huafu Securities·2025-07-27 14:42Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, Atour [1] Core Insights - Atour is a leading lifestyle brand group in the domestic mid-to-high-end hotel sector, focusing on high-quality accommodation and retail business, driving growth through a dual model of "Accommodation + Retail" [2][8] - The company is expected to see significant revenue growth, with projections of 93.3 billion, 115.4 billion, and 136.4 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, alongside net profits of 15.2 billion, 20.8 billion, and 26.2 billion yuan [3][69] Company Overview - Atour is recognized as the top player in the domestic mid-to-high-end hotel market, with a focus on providing high-quality accommodation experiences and a strong emphasis on mid-to-high-end users [2][8] - The retail segment, particularly in the deep sleep category, has seen rapid growth, with retail revenue share increasing from 9% in 2021 to 30% in 2024 [20][25] Industry Analysis - The hotel industry is experiencing continuous supply growth and structural upgrades, with a notable increase in the number of mid-range and high-end hotel rooms [2][37] - The chain hotel development trend is evident, with the chain rate rising from 19% in 2018 to 41% in 2023, indicating a shift towards more standardized hotel operations [37][46] Competitive Advantages - Atour's brand strength in the mid-to-high-end segment is significant, with a focus on personalized service and standardized methods to enhance user experience [3][54] - The company has rapidly expanded its membership base, growing from 35 million in 2022 to 89 million in 2024, indicating strong customer loyalty and engagement [3][60] Financial Performance - The company's revenue has grown from 1.57 billion yuan in 2020 to 7.25 billion yuan in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 46.7% [25][70] - The gross profit margin has improved from 26% in 2021 to 42% in 2024, driven by a shift in revenue composition towards higher-margin retail sales [30][70] Profitability Forecast - The report forecasts a steady increase in gross profit, with expectations of 40.2 billion, 51.6 billion, and 62.3 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [69][70] - The net profit margin is projected to improve, with net profit rates of 16.3%, 18.0%, and 19.2% for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 [70] Valuation Analysis - Atour's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are projected to be 23.1, 17.0, and 13.4 for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, indicating potential for valuation improvement compared to peers [72]