Nanhua Futures(SH:603093) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-07-28 02:13Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Views of the Report - The recent increase in ferroalloys is due to strong policy expectations and support from coal - based prices. Last Friday, influenced by the news of an anti - involution meeting among ferroalloy enterprises, both ferroalloys hit the daily limit. There is a high risk of chasing high prices in the short term, especially after the sharp decline of coking coal futures on Friday night, which may lead to a correction in ferroalloys. Currently, the supply - demand contradiction of ferroalloys is relatively small, with low operating rates. Silicon iron has high inventory but is gradually reducing it, while silicon manganese's inventory reduction is accelerating. The market is driven by sentiment, but the fundamental resonance is weak. Attention should be paid to the implementation of policy expectations and risk control [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot Market - Silicon iron: In the main production areas, the price of 72 - grade silicon iron in Inner Mongolia is 5600 yuan/ton (+250), and in Ningxia is 5600 yuan/ton (+270). In trading areas, it is 5900 yuan/ton (+400) in Hebei and Tianjin. Silicon manganese: In the northern production area (Inner Mongolia), the market price of 6517 - grade silicon manganese is 5700 yuan/ton (+70), in the southern production area (Guangxi) is 5720 yuan/ton (+50), and in the trading area (Jiangsu) is 6090 yuan/ton (+100) [2]. Cost and Profit - For silicon iron, the profit in Inner Mongolia's production area is +79 yuan/ton (+250), and in Ningxia's production area is 226 yuan/ton (+270). For silicon manganese, the profit in the northern region is - 66.74 yuan/ton (-0.1), and in the southern region is - 430.33 yuan/ton (-5.13). Manganese ore port inventory is increasing, and the shipment of Australian ore is expected to resume [2]. Supply - Silicon iron: The weekly operating rate of production enterprises is 33.33%, a week - on - week increase of 0.88%, and the weekly output is 10.23 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.3%. Silicon manganese: The weekly operating rate of production enterprises is 41.58%, a week - on - week increase of 1.05%, and the weekly output is 18.65 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.02%. Although the profit of ferroalloy plants has recovered, facing weak downstream demand, the operating rates remain low [3]. Demand - Steel mills have good profits, and high pig iron production supports the demand for silicon iron and silicon manganese. Pig iron production has rebounded above the seasonal level this week. On the other hand, the slow inventory reduction of five major steel products limits the further production space of steel mills, and the growth space of silicon iron and silicon manganese is limited. In the long term, the real - estate market is sluggish, and the overall black sector is declining, causing doubts about the growth of steel terminal demand, and the demand for silicon manganese is relatively weak. This week, the demand for silicon iron in five major steel products is 2.01 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.5%; the demand for silicon manganese in five major steel products is 12.37 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.24% [3]. Inventory - Silicon iron: This week, the enterprise inventory is 6.21 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.2%, the warehouse receipt inventory is 11.06 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.73%, and the total inventory is 17.28 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.29%. Silicon manganese: The enterprise inventory is 20.5 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.22%, the warehouse receipt is 38.83 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.85%, and the total inventory is 59.33 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.69%. Silicon iron currently has high inventory pressure, while the inventory pressure of silicon manganese is weakening [3].