Nanhua Futures(SH:603093) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-07-28 02:28Report Overview - Report Name: Nanhua Futures Tin Risk Management Daily Report - Date: July 28, 2025 - Research Team: Nanhua Non - Ferrous Metals Research Team [1] Investment Rating - There is no report industry investment rating provided in the content. Core View - The recent rise in tin prices was mainly due to the boost to the non - ferrous metals sector from anti - involution, with little change in its own fundamentals. Considering the obvious oligopoly situation in the upstream of tin and the suppression of the downstream, the rise is understandable. In the short term, as the anti - involution heat fades, tin prices may decline slightly. Investors should also pay attention to the impact of various macro events in the last week of July on tin prices [3] Content Summary by Category Price Volatility and Forecast - The latest closing price of tin is 271,630 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 245,000 - 263,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 14.36%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 26.1% [2] Risk Management Recommendations Inventory Management - For those with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, the strategy is to sell 75% of the Shanghai Tin main futures contract at around 275,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of the SN2509C275000 call option when the volatility is appropriate [2] Raw Material Management - For those with low raw - material inventory worried about price increases, the strategy is to buy 50% of the Shanghai Tin main futures contract at around 230,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of the SN2509P245000 put option when the volatility is appropriate [2] Factors Affecting Prices Bullish Factors - Sino - US tariff policy relaxation; the semiconductor sector is still in an expansion cycle; Myanmar's resumption of production is lower than expected; anti - involution benefits the entire non - ferrous metals sector [4] Bearish Factors - Tariff policy fluctuations; Myanmar's tin ore starts to flow into China; the semiconductor sector's expansion speed slows down and gradually moves from the expansion cycle to the contraction cycle [5] Futures and Spot Data Futures Data (Daily) - The latest price of the Shanghai Tin main contract is 271,630 yuan/ton (0 change, 0% change), the Shanghai Tin continuous - one is 272,120 yuan/ton (0 change, 0% change), the Shanghai Tin continuous - three is 271,890 yuan/ton (0 change, 0% change), the LME Tin 3M is 34,140 US dollars/ton (- 520, - 1.5% change), and the Shanghai - London ratio is 7.86 (0.12, 1.55% change) [6] Spot Data (Weekly) - The latest price of Shanghai Non - Ferrous tin ingots is 271,100 yuan/ton (5,600 change, 2.11% change), 1 tin premium is 700 yuan/ton (200 change, 40% change), 40% tin concentrate is 259,100 yuan/ton (5,600 change, 2.21% change), 60% tin concentrate is 263,100 yuan/ton (5,600 change, 2.17% change), etc. [11] Import and Processing Data - The latest tin import profit and loss is - 21,486.26 yuan/ton (- 307.4 change, 1.45% change). The 40% tin ore processing fee is 12,200 yuan/ton (0 change, 0% change), and the 60% tin ore processing fee is 10,550 yuan/ton (0 change, 0% change) [15] Inventory Data Daily Inventory - The total warehouse receipt quantity of tin on the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 7,125 tons (262 change, 3.82% change), including 4,636 tons in Guangdong (102 change, 2.25% change) and 1,608 tons in Shanghai (160 change, 11.05% change). The total LME tin inventory is 1,690 tons (0 change, 0% change) [19]